[ai-x]

Why are you comparing SpaceX revenues to US GDP? (when it's main customers will all have a global footprint)

GDP rates should be nominal (5-6%) not 3%

Also, go back in time and do the same analysis for Anthropic in 2023 or Nvidia in 2021, would you have predicted their current Annual revenue for them?

[mlyle]

Outgrowing GDP for awhile— especially from a smaller base— is certainly possible. It is much less likely to do it from a long time from already large revenue.

[ai-x]

If you looked at Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft valuation around 2007 (before the crash), you'd asked the same question about the large base. But here we are.

[mlyle]

But none of any of those has grown at the pace from that large base necessary to justify this kind of valuation.

[andruby]

* GOOG's revenue grew from 16.6B in 2007 to 402B in 2025 for a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 20.4%

* AMZN: 11.7B to 717B = 24.8%

* AAPL: 24B to 416B = 18.6%

* MSFT: 49.7B to 245B = 10.2%

SpaceX is claiming they will grow by 41.5% !! That's double GOOG's growth and 4x MSFT's growth.

[mlyle]

And claim they will keep bigger margins, despite needing to do all kinds of infrastructure stuff.