[datsci_est_2015]

> I think we have to trust the ballot box more than opinion polls.

I think voting trends are a pretty poor signal of voter values, but a much stronger signal of voter “alignment”, especially in first-past-the-post systems.

[cosmicgadget]

Certainly there is very little granularity in both election outcomes and yea/nay approval rating.

That said, if people voted based on values or alignment for a candidate that said he would overturn civil service reform and conduct the bigliest deportation campaign in history, it'd be silly to think they'd reject the outcomes they voted for.

[datsci_est_2015]

I think one of Trump’s greatest sleight-of-hands was convincing nearly every red triber that he represented their interests specifically, which is the ultimate goal of a populist. He was simultaneously a free market hero, while also highly protectionist. He was fair and sophisticated, while also highly retributive and humble. He became representative of their values, no matter what they were. I even still see it when talking to people who lean red - they’ll forgive Trump for nearly everything except what they view as being the important thing, which is a reflection of their own politics rather than Trump’s.

I mean, up until the election he was denying that he even knew what Project 2025 was, and now he’s bragging about how much from the document he’s accomplished.

Trump’s win was not a policy win, it was a culture war win.

[cosmicgadget]

No doubt, policy was completely absent in his campaign. His normal shtick does deal a lot in outcomes that are backed into policylike promises, "[literally anything] will make us/you the richest person/country in history, probably ever".

And you point out the single-issue voters that the GOP has farmed for decades. The culture war was there but since he protrays himself as elite, he couldn't do the blue collar charade. Instead it was a really half-assed demonization of trans athletes and, of course, immigrants.

The thing I think has to be mentioned is that he seems to have manipulated people's need to feel like they are on a team that is winning. I think that's why you see the cult of personality stuff like flags and tattoos - he's more of a college football team than an administrator.