[oblio]

> You have * zero * reason to believe inference is costly other than just vibes. If you go by data and intuitions - the margins are high.

1. What data?

2. Intuitions = vibes.

Vibes are bad when used against you, but good when used in your favor.

Come on :-)))

[simianwords]

I have the data here and intuition https://simianwords.bearblog.dev/conclusive-proofs-that-llm-...

But if you don't believe me, lets have a bet based on what the IPO filings show?

[emil-lp]

Remember that OpenAI is subsidized from here to the highway.

A better way to model this, since you seem interested is the following:

How much would it cost you to start such a service for, say, 10k users?

Any other internet service has had virtually Zero cost, $0. Google, Facebook, youtube, Wikipedia, you name it. They all went into the dumpster to pick up a thrown away desktop computer, and they could serve up towards 100k if not a million users.

How much would it cost you to serve, say, 10k simultaneous users with a SOTA model? And if you wanted to go cash positive after a year, how much would each user have to pay?

[simianwords]

> How much would it cost you to serve, say, 10k simultaneous users with a SOTA model? And if you wanted to go cash positive after a year, how much would each user have to pay?

My post has this same argument - we have multiple third party companies running open weight models. They are obviously not subsidised. And people are willing to pay for it. And these models are as good as the SOTA models from last year. So this kinda proves my point that SOTA is sustainable.

[emil-lp]

I didn't find the answer there, that's why I asked.

What hardware is needed, how much of it, cooling, and what does it all cost you?

Or are you saying I can take my old desktop and serve Deepseek v3.2 to 10k users simultaneously and it would cost me about $1 per megatoken?

[simianwords]

I'm simply saying this: there are third party hosters of Open Weight models like deepseek and they have been doing this for a while.

Obviously they are not subsidised, do you disagree? If you agree, they have a way to price it at a point that people wanna pay for it and also they aren't losing money.

So there's nothing inherent about inference that makes it too costly or whatever.

[oblio]

> I'm simply saying this: there are third party hosters of Open Weight models like deepseek and they have been doing this for a while.

> Obviously they are not subsidised, do you disagree? If you agree, they have a way to price it at a point that people wanna pay for it and also they aren't losing money.

> So there's nothing inherent about inference that makes it too costly or whatever.

Do we have audited GAAP financial data for any of these companies? If we don't, all these are... vibes, man.

[emil-lp]

Since you couldn't answer, I asked ChatGPT.

It said: upfront investment: $3M to $6M.

Customers should pay $25k per month.

Checks out