[wrsh07]

> 2026 consumer revenue projections from OpenAI are pitched at $14-15 billion, apparently. If they get that, it's the only year they will get that

Would you care to wager on that?

Because I would gladly take the other side at even odds.

> consumer AI is worth, to Anthropic

Anthropic does not really care about consumer AI. I expect consumer is where their least profitably customers are.

My primary expectation is that Apple will mostly increase usage of AI by general consumers. To me, this reads like Instagram adding stories. Did it stop Snapchat's growth? Sure. But I would be cautious about claiming it will take too many users away from OpenAI. I think it will be a fairly different product offering.

If you're paying to use ChatGPT right now, you might be using it for hobby coding, projects, or image generation. If you're paying a lot for ChatGPT, you're almost certainly using it for personal programming projects.

The $100/month (and up) subscribers aren't going to churn because of this, and I would be extremely surprised if the $20/month users do in any meaningful way.

[sarchertech]

> Because I would gladly take the other side at even odds.

If you’re only giving even odds you’re not very confident in openAI at all. $15 billion is peanuts.

[wrsh07]

I don't have to give them better odds then they'll accept

It's a steal at even odds

It's still positive EV at much worse odds but not worth my time

[sarchertech]

1. They didn’t accept those odds.

2. You can’t know whether it’s worth your time or not since you don’t know how much the wager was for.

If you’re 99% confident, 10:1 odds with a 10x larger bet is still a steal. My guess is your confidence is somewhere just north of 50%.

[overgard]

When I use these models, I honestly can't tell much of a difference between any of the frontier ones. Admittedly I'm not sitting around benchmarking them during the hype cycles, but as a coder I have zero issues switching to whatever's cheapest. Custom harnesses or whatever are not much of a moat (honestly Claude is so buggy right now that I've been using codex and opencode just so I don't have to deal with a flickery mess that screwed up my arrow keys)

I just don't see how being the "premium" provider really works if much cheaper models are basically good enough.

[dofm]

> Would you care to wager on that?

I don't gamble. Though you might not be alone taking the bet:

https://www.notus.org/technology/trump-blindsided-ai-compani...

"OpenAI CEO Sam Altman pitched the idea of turning over shares in his company to Trump in early 2025 and discussed the matter again with senior officials in recent weeks"