[sarchertech]

> Because I would gladly take the other side at even odds.

If you’re only giving even odds you’re not very confident in openAI at all. $15 billion is peanuts.

[wrsh07]

I don't have to give them better odds then they'll accept

It's a steal at even odds

It's still positive EV at much worse odds but not worth my time

[sarchertech]

1. They didn’t accept those odds.

2. You can’t know whether it’s worth your time or not since you don’t know how much the wager was for.

If you’re 99% confident, 10:1 odds with a 10x larger bet is still a steal. My guess is your confidence is somewhere just north of 50%.