[coke12]

Comparing SpaceX to an aircraft leasing company seems more foolish to me than a 94x multiple.

I understand the gist here, but come on. This is a generational company. It’s the only relevant space launch business, and has its tentacles deep in AI infrastructure as well. Maybe the AI bet is foolish — I don’t know — you should short it!

[amluto]

I am comparing SpaceX’s datacenter-and-GPU leasing business to aircraft leasing.

It’s possible, and common, for one large company to have multiple business lines, each worthy of a very different P/E multiplier. In principle you end up with a weighted average of some sort.

edit: Matt Levine has some great articles about this phenomenon and how some companies try to juice it.

[selfsimilar]

I would short xAI but the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent. Plus all the foolishness to prop it up with other businesses just seems like bad accounting.

[spwa4]

I don't think you can short it before the IPO happens. Well, unless you've got a few millions and go to a bank and have them make a product for you specifically. But for normal people, for now, not happening.

[browningstreet]

He can’t do with rockets what he says SpaceX has to do to meet its goals, and he isn’t raising enough money to get the job done either.

It’s another misdirection.

[Lplololopo]

'generational company'? Are you on drugs or so?

All of Musks business stuff highly depends on first mover advantage.

If people now selling it as a 'generational company' than it becomes even more stupid.

He didn't invent an unkown solution he is hiding to transform something into gold, he only put a lot of money into rockets.

And the rockets right now don't even have enough payload to have unlimited potential. If Space-X knows how to build a rocket very efficient, 10 years later other companies can do that too.

[ben_w]

> All of Musks business stuff highly depends on first mover advantage.

Do they? Out of all of them, I think only one of them really depends on, or even benefits from, first mover advantages: Starlink.

Tesla famously gave away all their patents, and is also being overtaken by Chinese companies with cheaper batteries because batteries are the expensive bit; SpaceX rockets are theoretically well protected because national security regulations >> patent law, but even there lots of Chinese clones popping up; TBC and Neuralink and SolarCity are going nowhere fast; Grok wasn't even the first in its field; Twitter/X is not only in heavy decline but was also always trivially cloneable and the clones are now an open source ecosystem of semi-distributed alternatives; xAI has shown ability to make data centres while pissing off locals but the market for those data centres is other AI companies who also commission their own data centres but found themselves scaling much faster than xAI did.

(Starlink's first mover advantage is "this orbit already contains a satellite").

[Lplololopo]

Tesla did not gave away its patents. It only says that if you want to use Tesla patents, we can use your patents.

Tesla won a lot of by being the first mass produced electric car.

Yeah the fact that China overtakes Tesla is a huge problem with Tesla and forces them to spread out. From all Musks hussles, only Tesla Cars and Space-X Starlink make money.

These two business are good running businesses, given. But these are not Trillion Dollar valuation companies.

Without the hype for these two things, nothing else would be possible.