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by yieldcrv 19 days ago
The state's ability to track and criminalize people based on financial behaviors through deputized financial intermediaries is new, and temporary.

Outside of this social graph, where private cash transactions still exist, the state lacks power and relies on stigmatizing cash ownership, consumption, movement. This stigma is largely successful and ubiquitous but inconsequential to anybody that matters or has a lawyer of their own.

Electronic settlement of funds since the 1970s has allowed for the state to leverage financial institutions for records and enforcement. Electronic settlement without institutions since the 2010s removes that power from the government and is merely a reversion to the mean. Any delay in the prevalence of this is both user-error, social stigma, and a government's unfamiliarity with the reality that their own constitutions and documents that organize the state are things that have to be updated to actually remove an expectation of privacy from finance.

> We don’t know what successful money launderers are doing in the present moment. All we do know is what unsuccessful ones have been caught doing in the past.

One major and necessary fallacy inside the social graph is that electronic settlement between institutions assumes that the deputized institutions have blessed the funds and user as not money laundered. Only the user and who they transact with can trigger an investigation by the government at this point, by reporting the money for taxes or in a large withdrawal to cash out of the social graph, without further laundering it. This user error is mostly mitigated as soon as cross border payments are done, because the next financial institution doubly assumes funds from another country's banks are clean. The banks and sovereignty become the washing machine inside the electronic settlement system.

This is doubly important to realize, because it's the tip of the iceberg in brand sovereignty. One country's illegality is not another country's illegality.

You can't simultaneously be for a stigma against withdrawing large amounts of cash, while considering the Communist Party's capital controls to be oppressive. Removing one capital control, blesses the other.

This is a blind spot for most people, since they don't consider them to be the same things, but fortunately this cognitive dissonance highlights the reality. It is impossible to completely stigmatize and the capital routes around the stigma and all capital controls, unless the entire world is under a single totalitarian regime.

All while only the edges, moving between physical cash and electronic system, and moving cash between borders and the electronic system, are policed, in what could really only be the ultimate hubris of expecting the state to be involved at all.

And it's not just cash. Its assets too. The state is hoping for titled and electronic settlement of assets. In the last 30 years a systematic global dismantling of explicit "bearer assets" has been done, when the bearer assets were offered by the state. But this is also unsuccessful, as since the 2010s, the bearer assets created and settled without a financial intermediary have existed and been wildly popular.

All capital controls have been obsoleted while they were never fully implemented to begin with. No matter whether that's the idea of your neighbor holding a lot of physical cash, or a subject of the Communist Party in another country circumventing capital controls you consider oppressive.

This article covers the same points with a wildly contrived conclusion: To attempt to change anything in favor of the state being more effective at enforcing its invented crime of money laundering instead of curbing the actual illicit behaviors. For reasons that are assumed and unexplained, so it's impossible for me to change my view on. My view is simple - capital controls are dead and a waste of time. The article and both books it references actually agree on that. My other view is that the state should just do classic investigative work on illegal behaviors which means finding the people involved and subpoena-ing them, something it seems to have forgotten how to do in favor of relying on deputized intermediaries who are temporary, ineffective, and inconvenience just the law abiding.

1 comments

Where cash is stigmatized? I haven't seen such a place except PRC.

Most people want government to be able to seize assets of baddies. It is possible with cash, it is possible with banks, hardly possible with crypto.

The technology to scam people at scale with untraceable emoney is not everybody's cup of tea.

Speaking from a country that invaded its neighbor, for our government (as well as north korea) it is lovely to have a way around sanctions. Libertarian crypto bros of the west are a godsend.

They are also a godsend to current American president which loves a nice side of washed crypto along with all the other theft.

It is absolutely possible to like cash and dislike crypto

Everyone in China has to and will accept cash in practice (no idea about big transactions though). Cash is also more frequent among locals in remote places.

Also if you're talking about Russia, people are switching back to cash en masse because cashless transfer between people is essentially half-criminalized. You run the risk of getting all your bank accounts blocked instantly on mere suspicion or for things outside of your control, with almost no real rules, accountability, or practical ways to push back. It's the way to avoid the runaway government process in the first place.

> Everyone in China has to and will accept cash in practice

False. If you say this as advice to anyone you are putting them in danger. Cash is a no go for most vendors and you may struggle to buy food if you only have cash. I was personally rejected numerous times and told to scan QR or go home.

> if you're talking about Russia, people are switching back to cash en masse

Also false. I don't know a single person to switch to cash. Friend of a friend lost bank card and was basically on QR for months, no cash no plastic.

Here is what I know:

- There are limits on dollars basically since the beginning of war. (Normal people aren't affected because they don't use dollars)

- There was apparently a brief scare that banks cannot satisfy if you want to withdraw a lot of ruble and then the gov quickly claimed it to be false (of course). The amounts were too high for any normal person.

- a bit of cash is helpful to help because censorship infrastructure caused internet hiccups so electronic payments occasionally don't go through, but it seems rare now

- in western regions people tend to carry more cash simply because mobile internet is regularly unavailable. After all if you can't access your banking app to pay for coffee while civilians in Ukraine across the border are getting bombed, it's a bit embarrasing.

Otherwise everyone is as cashless as usual, people moving money out of banks en masse is probably made up.

I'm saying that as someone who traveled across China in a (legally and physically) hardest way possible, including crossing the Taklamakan Desert where I wasn't even supposed to be. I have no idea what you're talking about - I've been mostly using cash even in tier 1 cities for everything from motor oil to street food, with occasional mobile for things like DiDi. Hotels, some vendors and others east of the Hu line can turn you down just because you're a foreigner, they don't like cash but will accept it. West of the Hu line cash is the primary way, if you're in the middle of nowhere in Qinghai it can even be the only way.

>Also false. I don't know a single person to switch to cash.

I'm sorry but either you have a pretty specific circle or you're not living in Russia (Moscow isn't). I'm talking about private transfers, not x5 groceries. Electricians, plumbers, and other workers I happened to hire in the recent several months were all reluctant to deal with bank transfers. I advise reading the federal law 161 and the actual "enforcement" practice. I personally know two debanked people, both are elderly, one is a scam victim and another was trying to move her own savings. In the second case it took months of refusals, unclear procedures, and a metric ton of paperwork to get out of it, and it was only possible because I was helping.

>Most people want government to be able to seize assets of baddies.

I dont, not while they get to decide who the baddies are.

This is correct attitude, for example some people actually got arresred for supporting ukraine efforts on war. I disagree that all my assets must be seized because i donated few bucks for sake protecting invaded country.

Ukraine event's is prime example why finanical privacy is important. I think we're solving taxing issue from wrong angle, we should be look this another angle: Merchants should be identifiable and taxable while customer stay private. GNU's solution "Talor" is very interesting and promising.

>Where cash is stigmatized? I haven't seen such a place except PRC.

I don't know about stigma, per se, but there are a few places where businesses have a pretty explicit legal right to refuse cash, UK, Netherlands, Sweden, US. Oddly in PRC refusing cash is illegal.

Because "cash" isn't actually real, it's entirely a form of completion of a contract. The same contract that you could agree to complete by trading chickens, or bottles of bath water.
I don't understand what is meant by "hardly possible with crypto." I've been hearing that for a long time but I've also heard so many stories about theft of crypto assets and seizures by government. In the US that seems to have slowed to near nothing with the current administration but it doesn't seem to be a capability issue. Or maybe I misunderstand you or the situation?
there is high consensus on that, but not high enough to enshrine it into the constitution. in countries with strong rule of law, the courts have continued to uphold this whenever the state gets bold enough to move on a previously tolerated "baddie"

capital, as an aggregate expression of people's desires, moves like water. if will flow through any small opening

capital controls will flow through any weak link, whether that's a Shanghai free trade zone, a freeport at the airport in JFK or Zurich, physical cash, illiquid assets traded through a trust, or natively in crypto, or crypto wrapped within the same aforementioned structures, no matter what the prevailing or commoner's view is everywhere else in the region

even countries that can change on the whims of an all powerful head of state, they don't really mess with the capital because it drives everyone else away and reduces the head of state's own liquidity and economic driver.