[lmeyerov]

Mostly by having a pulse for the last 10-20 years as someone in the bay area seeing it repeatedly play out as tech IPOs get dumped onto retail investors repeatedly, including the 'good' ones. Being lucky enough to participate in IPOs makes you check these wrt when to balance IPO pop exit (weeks/months) vs long-term tax benefits of holding (2yr+).

- The initial pop is known to be manufactured by banks, so mostly benefits insiders, so good time to diversify. I'm conservative so sold to cover effective basis or whatever risk strategy :)

- The lockup period (6mo) is a similarly known artificial event, and studies show that

- Tech companies take ~8 quarters of prep for the IPO as they do financial engineering to transition from VC growth-at-all-costs to public $, and I'd expect the same for whatever nonsense they pulled to juice numbers to shake out. And that's not including oddballs like the Musk alternate universe, just normal tech companies covering up EBITDA and low interest rate madness.

- Tech is especially volatile as an industry, so even more skepticism here. Eg, the latest IPO I was involved in was a successful professional social network play, and chatgpt killed it.

Most/all of these are googleable things

[JumpCrisscross]

Almost every retail investor has a random vibe like this about a market-timing hypothesis. They’re pretty much all cocktail conversation at best.

Lock-up expiry is a real effect. Everything else you mention is Reddit stuff—trading the pop is practically a gamble.

[lmeyerov]

? Very much agreed, the IPO pop is a manufactured pricing event focused on investor dynamics rather than direct fair market pricing, making it more of a gamble than normal. Including gambles in index funds defeats the point.

Maybe the confusing point was my involvement is (discounted) pre-IPO shares, which almost by definition, is not an activity accessible to retail investors.