[JumpCrisscross]

Almost every retail investor has a random vibe like this about a market-timing hypothesis. They’re pretty much all cocktail conversation at best.

Lock-up expiry is a real effect. Everything else you mention is Reddit stuff—trading the pop is practically a gamble.

[lmeyerov]

? Very much agreed, the IPO pop is a manufactured pricing event focused on investor dynamics rather than direct fair market pricing, making it more of a gamble than normal. Including gambles in index funds defeats the point.

Maybe the confusing point was my involvement is (discounted) pre-IPO shares, which almost by definition, is not an activity accessible to retail investors.