[daft_pink]

Any chance there is a prediction market for this that we can use, since research has shown they tend to be more accurate than experts?

[ddp26]

I linked elsewhere in a comment, Metaculus has AGI forecasts.

You can also now use AI forecasters like FutureSearch [1] (disclaimer: I work there), which are competitive with the best humans / teams of humans. And since you aren't depending on a human crowd, you can ask any variation of AGI questions with any definition, even ask conditional questions.

[1] https://futuresearch.ai/app

[confidantlake]

Zero chance, the outcome is far too vague to set a betting line.