[srean]

As an outsider to the US it feels as if Trump's popular base is still with him, or am I misreading the room ? Downvote patterns would be revealing.

I suppose his base considers people like her as an enemy and all means are legitimate in this us vs them war.

If that be so, this is what most Americans wanted. You and I would be outliers.

[pstuart]

Remember how he said he could shoot somebody on Fifth Ave and not lose a single vote? Do you remember the shock and outrage (I was shocked for sure). But he was right. It's literally a cult and they'll drink the kool aid up till the end.

For any supporters upset with me calling it a cult, please note that I take no pleasure in that (it seriously depresses me). But the dynamics of his relationship with his followers is textbook cult behavior.

[amalcon]

His base is still with him. Frankly, I can't find a material distinction between the beliefs of his base and the belief that Trump is the physical embodiment of America (and therefore anyone who opposes him in any way is an enemy of America).

However, his base is smaller than it seems like it is. It definitely does not include everyone who voted for him. A substantial fraction of his voters just prioritized other things over the rule of law.

That prioritization was a critical mistake - both because he was never going to deliver on those other things, and because giving up rule of law is catastrophic. It is understandable, though. It's these people who may be starting to break fron Trump.

[gmd63]

Most Americans didn't vote for Trump.

[kccoder]

And even fewer would vote for him today vs Nov 2024. He's at ~39% approval at this point. So, I disagree with the comment above which said that most americans voted for / support this.

[srean]

This is true in the absolute, not just in this special case but in almost all national level elections of any democratic country. I am going out on a limb here, but I think this is mostly true.

"Most Americans voted", really has now come to mean most of the voting citizens voted for him. Now I wonder if that qualified statement is true or not.

BTW I did not downvote.

[defrost]

As pointed out: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48304293

Less than half of the actual voted citizens voted for him (or, for those that prefer, almost half of the actually voted citizens voted for him)

[pseudohadamard]

Probably even less would have voted for him if there'd been an effective opposition you could vote for instead.

[srean]

Noted.

[rstuart4133]

> This is true in the absolute, not just in this special case but in almost all national level elections of any democratic country.

Australia would like to remind everyone we have compulsory voting.

[litoE]

Just out of curiosity: what happens to you if you don't vote? Can you get a medical excuse? What if you are traveling?l

[rstuart4133]

Good excuses work. But they have to be good:

- "travelling": why didn't you postal vote?

- "medical": we allow pre-voting; was it planned?

Just paying the fine without arguing on time gets you a 50% discount in state voting. And it's a token fine - $20 or so from memory for federal ballots. Besides you don't have to vote. The requirement is you turn up, or give them a piece of paper if you post it. This is deemed so important when we designed our own voting machines (which were never deployed), they had an explicit "I decline to vote" option.

The paper can be blank, but people are often more imaginative. I can't find the reference to it now, but one paper had penises of different lengths drawn beside each option. The Australian Electoral Commission is required by law to "save" votes, which means that even if it wasn't marked strictly according to the rules if a reasonable person could infer the intention, it counted. This particular vote worked its way through the courts, where it was eventually struck down. Reason: it was impossible to know if a longer penis meant it was more or less favourable to the candidate.

About 8% of ballots can't be saved. Of those around about 2% are deliberately spoilt - the rest are mistakes. If Vanessa Teague's voting machines (with the decline button) had been deployed, the remaining 6% would have gone away.

[gmd63]

Not sure why this is downvoted. Objectively true. Less than 50% of the popular vote, and that's just voting Americans.

[bonsai_spool]

Trump 2024 won the popular vote (surprisingly; I think that was the first time a Republican did that since the 1980s).

[krapp]

Trump 2024 won 49.8% of the vote versus Harris' 48.3%, out of the 65.3% of eligible voters who voted (about 154 million of 174 million people.)

Trump's exact vote tally was 77,284,118. That many people voted for him, versus 74,999,166 for Harris (with Trump's margin of victory being 2,284,952 votes.)

There are approximately 300 million Americans. So even though Trump "won the popular vote" it it still correct that most Americans didn't vote for Trump. Not even more than half of voters voted for Trump. Trump having "won the popular vote" does not in any way mean that a majority of Americans or even voters supported him, that just isn't the way the system works.

[defrost]

Trump's base is looking more and more like a cracked pot that can no longer hold together if moved or even poked that hard.

Original Trump or Die types like MTG and Tucker Carlson have split hard, others are raising concerns where previously the line was toed tight.

This news won't move the needle much, but larger issues like obvious corruption, Epstein files (still, ffs), the Iran NotWar and foreign policy in general are all exerting pressure.

November will be interesting, a time to see the resolution between cooking the electoral books to gin up the appearance of support and the increasing signs that chunks of the old base won't show in sufficient numbers to maintain control.

[b3ing]

The ones that split mostly did because it’s not profitable anymore, one podcaster that has been faithful had layoffs due to losing listeners

[jauntywundrkind]

His basket (of deplorables) overfloweth. So many people who care not for the country or what's happening at all, but who have been totally sold into the anti-government Reaganism & conspiracy & anti-socialness being sold for decades and hyped up forever on Fox News & now far worse viral vectors.

The new rebels don't succeed, don't leave: they just work to destroy & rot away every institution, turn it into sick farce & joke, erode the nation whole 250 years latter. Because rich people cannot stand a state that endorses the welfare of the people.

[krapp]

Trump's base is still with the principles of the movement.

It's important not to confuse the popularity of the man with the popularity of what he represents. The American right has wanted 95% of what Trump is doing for decades - the game plan for this was written up by conservative think tanks and evangelical Christians. They may reject him but they'll vote for whomever the movement decides will be his inheritor. Trump's purpose was to be a chaos agent and get the fascists in the door, but the utility of a pure cult of personality only goes so far. Now they will need to nail down their power structures and propaganda, and get the bureaucracy running without him.

And the best thing (for them) is, the crazier Trump gets on his way out, the more reasonable their alternative looks. And he'll look even better when the shock of Trump's policies and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz start to hit hard within a Democratic administration.