[kennywinker]

> It may be good enough for what you want but there will always be a harder problem that you need to throw more compute and more memory at.

Sure, but if the “good enough for what you want” consumes the vast majority of cases - data-center ai becomes just for the very extreme edge cases. Like how I can render a 4k rez video game at 60fps on my home pc, but if pixar wants to render their next movie they use data-center compute.

> all those same algorithmic improvements would also be true for larger models

Smaller models run faster. If ten runs of a small model gets me the same quality result as one run of the big model, and the small model runs 10x faster, then they are functionally the same.

[vlovich123]

Even accepting the premise, it should be obviously true that 10 dumber models running 10x as fast != 1 smarter model. Otherwise engineering would just be a matter of throwing people at a problem when it’s very clear that 1 talented engineer can outperform a team of engineers or accomplish things the team would never have been able to. There’s also the assumption you’re making that a 10x smaller model is 10x dumber when it’s not - it’s a curve and some people seem to struggle with non linear effects

[kennywinker]

> it should be obviously true that 10 dumber models running 10x as fast != 1 smarter model

If a smaller model tries ten things and comes to the same conclusion as the big model gets first try, then yeah 10x small = 1x big. Is that where we are at now? Idk probably not - but it’s not hard to imagine something like that emerging soon. There is already evidence that smaller models get some things _better_ than bigger models (e.g. https://aisle.com/blog/ai-cybersecurity-after-mythos-the-jag... )

> There’s also the assumption you’re making that a 10x smaller model is 10x dumber when it’s not

That is not an assumption i am making. I said “a smaller model” not “a 10x smaller model”. Model speed and model “intelligence” are both non-linear.

[zozbot234]

> Like how I can render a 4k rez video game at 60fps on my home pc, but if pixar wants to render their next movie they use data-center compute.

This is a very nice analogy actually and it impacts the whole story about US vs. Chinese leadership in "frontier AI".