[doodlebugging]

I read this article. Thanks for that link. I think it odd that they are focusing on drought conditions due to the La Nina conditions we have experienced when we are ramping up now for what has been described as a super El Nino. For much of the areas affected by the drought conditions, there will be an overabundance of precipitation by late summer into next spring.

The article mentions the potential for a super El Nino at the very end but doesn't discuss the effect it could have on content in the map should it go down as modeled. I suspect that a lot of yellows and red will disappear or shift to the north.

I know that the last super El Nino in 2015-2016 followed similar drought conditions due to La Nina such that rainfall at my property, which is normally ~36" (91.4 cm) annually (that's a 20 year average taken here on my property) was below average for the period 2010-2014 by 3-5" (7.62-12.7 cm) and up to 10" (25.4 cm) in 2014. Once La Nina faded it began to rain in August and rained out through December and we ended the year with 68" (172.7 cm) rainfall. In the decades that I have lived here and tracked rainfall that is the wettest year by more than 14" (35.6 cm).

We are currently behind the curve here but I have faith in their predictions since it also comes with a promise of ridiculously hot temperatures to make the last months of the year humid well past normal. It has been cooler than normal so far and drier than normal (La Nina hanging on by a thread). The script will flip and N Texas will again be a miserable place to be if you work outside.

[ffsm8]

It's worth keeping in mind the danger of such a transition though.

If you go from a drought to a lot of water it generally builds up pretty badly as dried out dirt doesn't absorb water very well.

If the prediction holds true it may become a year with a lot of water damage/flooding in these regions.

Let's hope for the best though.

[doodlebugging]

I agree that we should hope for the best. We should prepare for the worst too since the updated models are indicating that the super El Nino event is very likely. People across the region that will be affected can expect an unusually wet and hot end to the year. We have time to prepare.

There won't be much we can do about soil absorption since keeping your yard watered will also cause runoff if the soil is saturated.

We just need to follow the common sense guidance to avoid driving into flooded underpasses and do not drive past barriers. Remember that at night it will be difficult to spot flooded sections of highway due to reflections so you will be dependent on center lines and painted markings and if they disappear it could indicate water depth sufficient to obscure them. Hydroplaning is a serious concern so drive more slowly and remember that if you begin to hydroplane you need to keep your wheels pointed in the direction that you need to travel and let off of the accelerator. The pooled water and sudden decrease in speed will put your tires back on the road surface so your vehicle will zip off in the direction that it is pointing. Check your tread depth before autumn and replace your tires if they are worn.

Carry a rain slicker or poncho with you in case traffic conditions force you to stop due to accidents or water across the roadway. You'll be a lot more comfortable dry than wet.

I intentionally bought property with a house that is on a hill with drainage away from the house so flooding isn't something that I worry about. I know that most other people will have to deal with flooding, especially around here where there are so many new construction issues - new concrete driveways, asphalt streets, and channelized creeks. Places that have never flooded in the past could flood now due to loss of open ground to home construction.

I am a couple decades into restoring my place to native prairie grasses, wildflowers, and trees so my place manages rainfall as it always has. I don't have much soil to absorb the rainfall though since I live on a limestone outcrop with poorly developed soils.

I hope people around here will follow guidance and be safe and use common sense when the rains come. I'm ready with my 4x4s to drag them out of their situations if they need a hand though.

[ffsm8]

> There won't be much we can do about soil absorption since keeping your yard watered will also cause runoff if the soil is saturated.

There is literally nothing you can do about it. Watering your lawn does not impact that issue whatsoever, you'd have to continuously water your whole region.

the effect I was talking about is worth checking out if you're interested - it's usually described as "hydrophobic earth from drought" and similarly. No meaningful way to utilize that knowledge beyond being aware that regional droughts inevitably make floods worse.

The difference is not enough at a single plots area - that's why I'm saying watering your lawn doesn't matter, but the effect is massive when a drought takes place because suddenly the whole area absorbs less water

[doodlebugging]

>There is literally nothing you can do about it. Watering your lawn does not impact that issue whatsoever, you'd have to continuously water your whole region.

Thanks for this clarification for anyone reading. I had intended to say that a drought creates a regional problem in my earlier reply but got lost in the process. Using a highly local example anecdote was dumb. I'm a geoscientist so I understand how the sediment wetting process works but that doesn't mean that I can always easily explain it to someone else.

There are many things that affect wettability and soil absorption and most of them relate to the soil type in the area and they can be hyperlocal effects. I was constructing a hugelculture orchard here on my place a few years back. That involves layering organic materials into mounds that, as they decompose, the decomposition of the organics (logs, small limbs, leaves, green grass, etc) builds a soil that holds water so that the plants that are planted require less frequent watering. One of the components is supposed to be topsoil. You will plant your trees, vegetables, etc into the topsoil and they will grow strong on the decomposition of all that other stuff.

I live on a limestone outcrop. My deepest "topsoil" is under one foot deep and it varies greatly so that there are spots with zero topsoil. I had to buy some from a local supplier. That turned out to be a mistake. The product they delivered was riverbed silt, a very fine-grained shaley sediment with zero sand and zero organic matter. It was impossible to water anything that had been planted directly in that silt. The water beaded up and rolled downhill almost as fast as it could be sprayed. I did not know that this crappy dirt was worthless until I had spread more than half of it in an internal layer on the pile. Removing it was impossible. I capped the mound with that silt and planted my plants in the thin soil at the base of the mound since that is where all the water would end up anyway. It was three years before grass would grow on the mound and only then because I had heavily mulched the mound with wheat straw and worked it in.

I understand the point you were making and thank you for making it more clear for anyone on this thread.

[bell-cot]

> Carry a rain slicker or poncho with you in case ...

Add a pair of rubber boots and a walking stick. The latter both to check the depth of water, and to brace yourself when there's bad footing or flowing water.

[doodlebugging]

Thanks for this!

[itsmek]

Don't put too much stock in the ENSO models until the spring unpredictability barrier is over. That said there was a huge kelvin wave a couple weeks ago which tracks with the super el nino pattern. If you look at a map of pacific equatorial ocean temps this year vs past super el ninos at this stage of the progression they do feel like they track. So I'm not saying it's not going to happen, it's just that the models are very inaccurate at predicting the winter until we're into the summer. In the past such predictions like we see now have turned to duds.

[doodlebugging]

Here is an interesting paper [0] talking about ENSO models of La Nina/El Nino cycles and their correlation with geomagnetic activity during solar cycles. I know that models are leaning towards a super El Nino and that at other times the models didn't pan out. The paper goes into the data and offers an explanation and a path forward for new research to nail it down. The sea surface temperature has been the driver for the determination of cycle timings and it probably is too broad a generalization of the process.

[0]https://www.spaceweather.com/images2026/13may26/feart-11-120...

[beAbU]

Thanks for you metric conversions. Very considerate of you!

Just an fyi, precipitation is usually measured in mm. There is no need for the decimal point in your conversions.

[doodlebugging]

I knew that and still messed it up! Thanks for the reminder. I'm glad the conversions helped you follow the post.