[itsmek]

Don't put too much stock in the ENSO models until the spring unpredictability barrier is over. That said there was a huge kelvin wave a couple weeks ago which tracks with the super el nino pattern. If you look at a map of pacific equatorial ocean temps this year vs past super el ninos at this stage of the progression they do feel like they track. So I'm not saying it's not going to happen, it's just that the models are very inaccurate at predicting the winter until we're into the summer. In the past such predictions like we see now have turned to duds.

[doodlebugging]

Here is an interesting paper [0] talking about ENSO models of La Nina/El Nino cycles and their correlation with geomagnetic activity during solar cycles. I know that models are leaning towards a super El Nino and that at other times the models didn't pan out. The paper goes into the data and offers an explanation and a path forward for new research to nail it down. The sea surface temperature has been the driver for the determination of cycle timings and it probably is too broad a generalization of the process.

[0]https://www.spaceweather.com/images2026/13may26/feart-11-120...