[tw04]

And yet oil was flowing freely for decades because Iran had no reason to pick a fight. All your theoretical doesn’t reflect the real world. Israel started a war the US can’t finish, and even if we were to turn Iran into a parking lot, ignoring the fact the rest of the world would outright shun us, we would literally be in no better shape than before we got into this mess.

Trump is an idiot and thought starting a war would help his odds in the midterm elections, and he needed a bigger distraction from the Epstein files. That’s the beginning and end of it. Any claims that this was some strategic move to assert US dominance is a poor attempt grasping at straws.

[rabidonrails]

I don't think the rest of the world would "outright shun us." I think that the rest of the world that you're describing are mainly European countries that are highly dependent on Gulf oil access. They need to be careful not to publicly anger anyone in the Gulf who might cut off their supply.

Your argument is that Israel started a war that Trump is finishing to divert from Epstein ties but that's tying together a bunch of conspiracy theories.

[tw04]

> mainly European countries that are highly dependent on Gulf oil access.

Uh, no. Europe gets a tiny fraction of their oil from the middle eastern countries currently being affected and none of their natural gas.

> Your argument is that Israel started a war that Trump is finishing to divert from Epstein ties but that's tying together a bunch of conspiracy theories.

If you think the Epstein files are a “conspiracy theory” I guess we can end the discussion now because much like your claims Europe is dependent on the Middle East for energy, you have no idea what you’re talking about.

And do you really think Israel starts this without US backing? The war they’ve asked every president since Bush about starting but were told no by every predecessor to Trump, including Trump himself when he didn’t need a distraction his first term.

[rabidonrails]

You're right, I should have been more clear. There isn't a crude shock that would come from the middle east to Europe. That would be more an economic shock because of the demand from China/India on that crude which would then drive up the global price of the commodity. This in turn would create an economic shock - one that would be hard for Europe to withstand (as opposed to the US).

And, while that's true of crude itself, more refined oil products are heavily imported from the ME to Europe - I'm sure you've seen the news on jet fuel.

I do think that saying "oh, Trump did this so we stopped looking at the Epstein files" is a conspiracy theory. Doesn't mean it can't be right - just means that it's just conjecture.

All I did above was provide a different perspective - don't like it? Feel free to move along.