[jmyeet]

It's more complex than that.

Saudi Arabia has the East-West Pipeline [1] that takes ~7Mbpd (million barrels per day) of oil to Red Sea ports to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. They were already using it so there's not a lot of extra capacity they can get out. If we continue up the escalation ladder, the next big risk is that the Houthis close Bab al-Mandab, which is a not-quite-as-narrow but still vulnerable chokepoint to the Red Sea.

The UAE has the ADCOP (Abu Dhabi Cross Oil Pipeline) [2], which takes ~1.8Mbpd to the Gulf of Oman. This is beyond the Strait of Hormuz but not that far so technically is still vulnerable to drone attacks (in particular) from Iran if, again, we climb the escalation ladder.

The real issue is American security guarantees to GCC nations have been shown to be an illusion. Heck, the US can't protect their own bases in the region. Also, the US can't protect maritime traffic through the Strait. I mean this is in all seriousness: there is no military solution to this problem short of the use of nuclear weapons.

That means we are now in a situation where the US has to either split with Israel and offer Iran significantly better terms than they had before the war, likely including the lfiting of economic sanctions, or the US has to sit and watch the world plunge into recession and Asian countries in particular are going to burn. And who knows what a prolonged impasse will do to Europe, particularly come winter.

So far, the US seems to prefer letting the world burn rather thans plitting with Israel.

A protection racket ceases to be a protection racket if it no longer offers protection.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Crude_Oil_Pi...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habshan%E2%80%93Fujairah_oil_p...

[ajross]

> Asian countries in particular are going to burn

They won't sit still, though. Eventually, if this were tried, we'd see Chinese-flagged tankers buying passage rights from Iran and being escorted by PLAN ships.

No way does Commander TACO take that shot. The US interdiction threat in the gulf is empty, and everyone know it. Iran gets paid at the end of every story. The whole boondoggle has been a failure for the US in every analysis.

[i_think_so]

+1 for "Commander TACO".

Mass killing, global recession, fertilizer shortages potentially leading to widespread famine and....Slashdot references?

Oh man, this timeline is the worst, but it is absolutely the most entertaining.

[me-vs-cat]

Commander TACO isn't a reference to CmdrTaco from Slashdot.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Always_Chickens_Out

[ajross]

For the record: it was both, more or less. Some of the elders in this community were around in the Slashdot days, so it was sort of a pun on our shared cultural heritage, albeit not geopolitical strategy.

[me-vs-cat]

Elder? Just look here, I'm too young to be called that nonsense, and get off my lawn.

[bigfatkitten]

I suspect USN commanders have been ordered to leave Chinese flagged tankers well alone, even in the absence of a PLAN escort.

[vkou]

The escorts wouldn't be for defense, they'd be for PR.

[aurareturn]

I think China can threaten to give Iran a few anti-carrier missiles. That could be the step to break the US blockade.

[ajross]

Again, there's no need to "break" a blockade that is an empty threat. I mean, yes, they could try to open it with military force or the threat thereof, but literally just painting a red flag would do just as well. Trump won't fire on a Chinese vessel, period.

[JumpCrisscross]

> escorted by PLAN ships

This would be a blunder by Beijing. It would involve trotting their ships through half a world of American and allied sensors, only to put an untested-in-blue-waters navy perilously far from nearest bases or support if anything goes wrong.

I’m not saying the likes of Xi, Putin or Trump couldn’t do it. But it would be an intelligence bonanza for the West, India, Japan and Taiwan.

[greedo]

PLAN already sails routinely to Africa, with port calls in Pakistan along the way.

[throwaway2037]

There is a Chinese naval base in Djibouti. They don't need to travel very far. Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Sup...

    > untested-in-blue-waters navy

I disagree with this assessment. While they have not engaged in combat in blue waters, they certainly are all over the Pacific, far from home. Also, the US and Canada regularly run spy flights that capture photos and radio signals from Chinese naval vessels. I'm sure their boats are well painted with NATO radars by now.

[nradov]

The PLAN has routinely operated in the region for several years. They have a permanent base in Djibouti and free use of port facilities in Pakistan.

[nirav72]

Even if PLAN ships aren’t as capable or matching the U.S, it doesn’t really matter. They just have to be there. The U.S is not going to risk an escalation with China.

[throw0101c]

> […] or the US has to sit and watch the world plunge into recession and Asian countries in particular are going to burn.

Perhaps worth noting that the US is not unscathed in this, as oil/petroleum is a global market that includes the US. US domestic gas pump prices (which is input into everything, including groceries) go up when global oil prices go up. Not to mention things like fertilize (and, as a lot of people suddenly found out, the importance of helium).

And it's not like the US can practically stop exports, as a lot what the US produces can't be processed by their own refineries (at least at prices palatable to the consumer).

* https://blog.drillingmaps.com/2025/06/this-is-why-us-cant-us...

So it's not wrong to say that the world may end up in a global recession, and Asian countries have more acute problems that will hit sooner than the US, but the US will also face those issues if things drag on.

[DeathArrow]

>That means we are now in a situation where the US has to either split with Israel and offer Iran significantly better terms than they had before the war, likely including the lfiting of economic sanctions, or the US has to sit and watch the world plunge into recession and Asian countries in particular are going to burn. And who knows what a prolonged impasse will do to Europe, particularly come winter.

I have the impression that somehow if the world will go into a recession, China will come out ahead. It looks like they either prepared for it or they have enough space to maneuver.

[1293-1827]

> So far, the US seems to prefer letting the world burn rather thans plitting with Israel.

That is the plan: After decoupling the EU from Russia gas by provoking the Ukraine war, now it is time for the Asian countries to be cut off from gulf oil/gas, so the US fracking projects become economical and the entire "allied" countries depend on the US petrostate.

It is the only way to preserve US hegemony. Since this long term project is bipartisan, higher gas prices in the US don't matter before the midterm elections.

The only difference in foreign policy between Trump and Biden is that Trump is more risk taking and often spells out the real intentions, such as "we'll take the oil".