[ajross]

> Asian countries in particular are going to burn

They won't sit still, though. Eventually, if this were tried, we'd see Chinese-flagged tankers buying passage rights from Iran and being escorted by PLAN ships.

No way does Commander TACO take that shot. The US interdiction threat in the gulf is empty, and everyone know it. Iran gets paid at the end of every story. The whole boondoggle has been a failure for the US in every analysis.

[i_think_so]

+1 for "Commander TACO".

Mass killing, global recession, fertilizer shortages potentially leading to widespread famine and....Slashdot references?

Oh man, this timeline is the worst, but it is absolutely the most entertaining.

[me-vs-cat]

Commander TACO isn't a reference to CmdrTaco from Slashdot.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Always_Chickens_Out

[ajross]

For the record: it was both, more or less. Some of the elders in this community were around in the Slashdot days, so it was sort of a pun on our shared cultural heritage, albeit not geopolitical strategy.

[me-vs-cat]

Elder? Just look here, I'm too young to be called that nonsense, and get off my lawn.

[bigfatkitten]

I suspect USN commanders have been ordered to leave Chinese flagged tankers well alone, even in the absence of a PLAN escort.

[vkou]

The escorts wouldn't be for defense, they'd be for PR.

[aurareturn]

I think China can threaten to give Iran a few anti-carrier missiles. That could be the step to break the US blockade.

[ajross]

Again, there's no need to "break" a blockade that is an empty threat. I mean, yes, they could try to open it with military force or the threat thereof, but literally just painting a red flag would do just as well. Trump won't fire on a Chinese vessel, period.

[JumpCrisscross]

> escorted by PLAN ships

This would be a blunder by Beijing. It would involve trotting their ships through half a world of American and allied sensors, only to put an untested-in-blue-waters navy perilously far from nearest bases or support if anything goes wrong.

I’m not saying the likes of Xi, Putin or Trump couldn’t do it. But it would be an intelligence bonanza for the West, India, Japan and Taiwan.

[greedo]

PLAN already sails routinely to Africa, with port calls in Pakistan along the way.

[throwaway2037]

There is a Chinese naval base in Djibouti. They don't need to travel very far. Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Sup...

    > untested-in-blue-waters navy

I disagree with this assessment. While they have not engaged in combat in blue waters, they certainly are all over the Pacific, far from home. Also, the US and Canada regularly run spy flights that capture photos and radio signals from Chinese naval vessels. I'm sure their boats are well painted with NATO radars by now.

[nradov]

The PLAN has routinely operated in the region for several years. They have a permanent base in Djibouti and free use of port facilities in Pakistan.

[nirav72]

Even if PLAN ships aren’t as capable or matching the U.S, it doesn’t really matter. They just have to be there. The U.S is not going to risk an escalation with China.