[sofixa]

> They did not properly prepare and as a result lost 20% of its territory in days.

They did though. While nobody actually believed Putin would be dumb enough, the Ukrainian army was still, just in case, extremely busy on preparing defences, organising stockpiles, preparing defensive tactics.

[_heimdall]

> While nobody actually believed Putin would be dumb enough

I'm not sure why you'd say nobody thought they would invade. To me it was clear in December the year before when the Russian navy began sailing the long way around Europe, getting in the way of Irish fisherman and confirmed days before the invasion when they had stockpiled medical personnel and blood on the front lines.

[mmmmmbop]

You must have made a fortune from shorting Russian stocks in December 2021.

[anonymars]

When the US warned, days before, of the imminent invasion, the broad reaction was still one of "the boy who cried wolf"

[_heimdall]

And I didn't understand why anyone thought the warning was wrong. Who sends their navy around Europe, collects 100k troops on the border, and ships blood reserves to the front for a training exercise?

[sofixa]

Because it was just so dumb. Putin had previously done things to sabre rattle to get concessions, and talks were happening at the same time, so many thought he wouldn't be dumb enough to invade, but just wants more to negotiate.

[_heimdall]

Whether it was a smart choice is separate from whether they were actually going to do it though. The naval movement was a big red flag IMO, but by the time blood supplies were brought up it was clear regardless of an outside perspective of the strategy.

[lotsofpulp]

It was clear when they captured Crimea.

[_heimdall]

Sure that plays a role for sure, though I don't think anyone in 2014 was predicting a broader invasion 8 years later.

[lotsofpulp]

Crimea was Feb 2014, and then in Jul 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight 17 was shot down by "pro russian separatists" in eastern Ukraine. Seems like they were laying the groundwork for a while. I have no idea what portion of this wikipedia article is true:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya_(confederation)

But it seems Ukraine had questionable control of the eastern parts of the country long before the 2022 "official" invasion.

[_heimdall]

I'm not sure, though, how any clear line could be drawn between 2014 and 2022. It was clear, at least to me, once the Russians stacked up military assets in a way they hadn't previously.

There was at least one other buildup of around 100k troops in the intervening years, but I don't think they moved their naval assets from the north or bring blood supply to the front.

It seemed to me like they went quiet for most of the 8 years, I'd be curious what you may have seen that made it more clear based mainly on the 2014 invasion(s).