[sofixa]

Because it was just so dumb. Putin had previously done things to sabre rattle to get concessions, and talks were happening at the same time, so many thought he wouldn't be dumb enough to invade, but just wants more to negotiate.

[_heimdall]

Whether it was a smart choice is separate from whether they were actually going to do it though. The naval movement was a big red flag IMO, but by the time blood supplies were brought up it was clear regardless of an outside perspective of the strategy.