[ajross]

It's not really an "if". Iran is in a stronger geopolitical position (than the one they held before the war) today. Any deal they make can only improve things for them, by definition (or else they wouldn't take it).

That's precisely the trap the Trump administration has created for itself. If the only way out is to lose, then you've already lost. And Iran knows it.

[karmakurtisaani]

I agree that they have this strong position now, but the war is not over yet. I doubt they'll lose it in any meaningful way, but still it remains to be seen how they manage to capitulate it in a possible peace deal.

[ajross]

Again, they don't have to capitulate. They hold all the cards. The world needs that strait open, and 100%, undeniably, without any question at all will pay Iran tolls to get it.

To the extent that this ends in military action, it's going to be the rest of the world protecting the Iranian toll regime from USA piracy. Even Trump won't pull that trigger. Watch for the TACO.

[karmakurtisaani]

They still need to come to some kind of peace treaty to be able to profit from the control of the strait. Before that happens we might see things like ground invasion or nuclear weapons being used. It's unlikely, but within the realm of possibility.

[ajross]

Again, no, before that happens we'll see Europe and China submit to Iran's tolls and start escorting their tankers through the straight in "violation" of Trump's insane blockade. The US position is 100% untenable here, it relies on everyone else just deciding by fiat that Iran is the bad guy when it's very clearly us.

[axython]

You believe China and Europe would go to fight with US instead of Iran, if/when we get to a point of actually hurting enough to join that fight?

I don't see that happening... Also if they want to escort tankers, they can escort tankers from US-allied countries, and I assume US would also help.

Overall, I legit do not see a way where countries would pick to fight against US instead of Iran if we ever get there. But maybe, I am wrong, so who knows :)

[ajross]

> You believe China and Europe would go to fight with US instead of Iran

No, but I believe China and Europe believe that they can stare down Trump and force a TACO more than they believe in their ability to successfully navigate the ridiculous shitstorm in the gulf.

I repeat for like the ninth time: It is the USA, and not Iran, that is actually preventing commerce in the gulf as a matter of national policy. Iran just wants to get paid, basically. Trump wants... what, exactly? And that's the problem. The rest of the world needs a solution and not bluster. Iran offers one, Trump just yells a lot.

[Jensson]

> Iran is in a stronger geopolitical position (than the one they held before the war) today

Why do you say that? IRGC lost 90% of their corrupt income when USA blockaded their shadow fleet of oil tankers, they are weaker than ever right now, it is hard for any organization to survive long when losing 90% of their income. They rely on a large amount of mercenaries currently to keep the population under house arrest, but what happens when those no longer get paid?

That seems like a very brittle position to me.

[ajross]

The blockade is 100% unsustainable. It's a joke. The world can't absorb a 25% cut in oil production for anything more than a few months. Reserve capacity is already being tapped. The futures market says it's only a mild disruption because the futures market is predicting (correctly, so far) that it's all a joke that will disappear in a confusing TACO in a few days.

[Jensson]

> The world can't absorb a 25% cut in oil production for anything more than a few months.

IRGC can't absorb that for more than a few months either, and if the world wants to open the strait they would rather attack Iran over the strait than attack USA, so there is no way this state will benefit IRGC if it keeps up.

It was IRGC mining friendly countries waters and attacking ships in friendly waters, every country affected has the right to go attack IRGC over that but they choose to wait and see for now. But if it gets as bad as you suggest then they will just force Iran to open it, they wont force USA to do anything since its not USA that is illegally blocking it.

[oa335]

> IRGC can't absorb that for more than a few months either, and if the world wants to open the strait they would rather attack Iran over the strait than attack USA, so there is no way this state will benefit IRGC if it keeps up.

This is not at all obvious to me. Money and economic power historically is downstream of military power - men with guns can expropriate whatever they want or need from their unarmed, isolated population. The only thing that is potentially upstream of military power is ideology, which also favors IRGC and Iran security forces as they seem to be most ideologically fervent faction in Iran.

[ajross]

> they wont force USA to do anything since its not USA that is illegally blocking it.

The USA is literally blockading the strait to prevent tolling. I mean, in some sense you're right: the Trump threat is fake and he'll cave. But the policy you're ascribing to Iran, incorrectly, is actually what your government claims to be doing!

I remain just absolutely dumbfounded at the ability of this administration's defenders to just dig in on obvious lies. Surely on some level you get that you're being lied to, right?

[Jensson]

> The USA is literally blockading the strait to prevent tolling.

USA is blockading Iran, they don't blockade anyone but Iran.

> But the policy you're ascribing to Iran, incorrectly, is actually what your government claims to be doing!

I'm not an american. And no, USA doesn't block anyone but Iran here, blockading an enemy nations ports is fair game during war, blockading third party ports that tries to sail through their own waters like Iran does is not. The strait isn't Irans strait, they put mines all over the place in Omans waters, that is extremely illegal and basically a declaration of war against Oman to do so.

Edit: Maybe you misunderstood USAs blockade as they blockading anyone who pay Iranian tolls. No they don't do that, that was just a deranged statement by Trump, CENTCOM later announced the real blockade and it was just a blockade against Iranian ports, nothing about Iranian tolls.

[ajross]

> USA is blockading Iran, they don't blockade anyone but Iran.

For fuck's sake, as it were: https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2043344995181011027

"Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz." - President Donald J. Trump

The inability of people to reason from clear evidence about this president, and instead project onto him whatever rationalizations they've come up with, is absolutely astounding.

Now, again, that is what the president SAID. It is clearly not the actual military stance of the USN in the strait, because that would be insane. But it remains US policy and to argue otherwise is... yikes.