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by ajross 54 days ago
Again, they don't have to capitulate. They hold all the cards. The world needs that strait open, and 100%, undeniably, without any question at all will pay Iran tolls to get it.

To the extent that this ends in military action, it's going to be the rest of the world protecting the Iranian toll regime from USA piracy. Even Trump won't pull that trigger. Watch for the TACO.
1 comments
karmakurtisaani 54 days ago
They still need to come to some kind of peace treaty to be able to profit from the control of the strait. Before that happens we might see things like ground invasion or nuclear weapons being used. It's unlikely, but within the realm of possibility.
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ajross 53 days ago
Again, no, before that happens we'll see Europe and China submit to Iran's tolls and start escorting their tankers through the straight in "violation" of Trump's insane blockade. The US position is 100% untenable here, it relies on everyone else just deciding by fiat that Iran is the bad guy when it's very clearly us.
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axython 53 days ago
You believe China and Europe would go to fight with US instead of Iran, if/when we get to a point of actually hurting enough to join that fight?

I don't see that happening... Also if they want to escort tankers, they can escort tankers from US-allied countries, and I assume US would also help.

Overall, I legit do not see a way where countries would pick to fight against US instead of Iran if we ever get there. But maybe, I am wrong, so who knows :)

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ajross 53 days ago
> You believe China and Europe would go to fight with US instead of Iran

No, but I believe China and Europe believe that they can stare down Trump and force a TACO more than they believe in their ability to successfully navigate the ridiculous shitstorm in the gulf.

I repeat for like the ninth time: It is the USA, and not Iran, that is actually preventing commerce in the gulf as a matter of national policy. Iran just wants to get paid, basically. Trump wants... what, exactly? And that's the problem. The rest of the world needs a solution and not bluster. Iran offers one, Trump just yells a lot.

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