[stouset]

If this were the case, deeper and more informed pockets than yours would take the opposing position until there’s no more alpha to be had.

[nojito]

Not true at all.

A great example was this market from the most recent primary election.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxsenatedemturnout/voter-turnou...

Based on just simple math there was basically no chance of turnout being over 2.5m and yet the market for multiple days had the higher buckets at exorbitant prices.

[wallst07]

The turnaround was 2.3m, I don't get your point. Texas doesn't require party affiliation.

[nojito]

Correct and the higher brackets above 2.5m were at 50-70 cents each.