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by nojito 61 days ago
Not true at all.

A great example was this market from the most recent primary election.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxsenatedemturnout/voter-turnou...

Based on just simple math there was basically no chance of turnout being over 2.5m and yet the market for multiple days had the higher buckets at exorbitant prices.

1 comments

The turnaround was 2.3m, I don't get your point. Texas doesn't require party affiliation.
Correct and the higher brackets above 2.5m were at 50-70 cents each.