[ggreer]

David Moss is a traveling LiDAR salesman. He doesn’t work for Tesla, and Tesla didn’t know about him until one of his tweets about his FSD experience went viral. Unless you think he faked images of his FSD stats for months and Tesla went along with it, I’m not sure what to tell you.[1]

1. https://x.com/DavidMoss/status/2010608939751047484

[vel0city]

I don't know who David Moss is, I have no reason to trust him. His tweets I can see are practically nothing but Tesla and Grok shill posts.

[ggreer]

Let’s say, hypothetically, that someone has gone thousands of miles on FSD without intervening. What information would need to exist to convince you of this?

[ImPostingOnHN]

The verified, raw data of at least 1,000 other people's worth of data, so the data has a chance of being statistically significant, rather than 1 random dude out of billions posting on the car company CEO's website (on which said CEO is infamous for moderating content to suit his views and ego).

[ggreer]

That’s what it will take for you to believe that someone has gone thousands of miles without intervening? I don’t think that even Waymo (which has thousands of vehicles that have gone much farther without human intervention) has met the criteria you’ve set.

[UltraSane]

If one person can do this then thousands should also be able to.

[ggreer]

> If one person can do this then thousands should also be able to.

That’s not at all true. Very few people take the time to drive thousands of miles in a short period of time and document it while never intervening for any reason (not even accidentally bumping the wheel).

Anyways, I remember you. You claimed that Tesla would never remove safety drivers from their robotaxis.[1] I tried to get us to bet on this prediction but you never replied.

Well, Tesla has removed safety drivers from some of their robotaxis, meaning your prediction that their technology is “never going to be reliable enough” was falsified within a few months.

1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45661368

[ImPostingOnHN]

Happily, I don't care about Waymo. I do care about statistical competency among the population. Everyone should know that a single data point is irrelevant, as it could be noise just as easily as it could be signal. It is statistically insignificant.

You can actually do the math to find out the sample size you would need to derive a statistically significant conclusion. No need to be incredulous at my answer to your question: it's basic statistics.

As an aside: in general, if you find yourself going to a single person for data and expertise, you might be falling victim to a personality cult.

[ggreer]

The reason I'm using a single example is because we don't have comparable statistics across manufacturers, and because it's enough to demonstrate my point about Tesla's autonomous capabilities versus other brands. I am saying the same thing you are: Examples exist of FSD being used for thousands of consecutive miles without intervention. But you cannot find such examples for any other consumer car brand today. If Blue Cruise, Super Cruise, Mercedes-Benz Driver Assistance, or any other technology went similar distances without any human intervention, then it would be accurate to claim that, "Other brands have had self driving features for years now. Some even operate at a higher level of automation." But we don't have such examples, so it's not accurate to make such claims.

Nowhere in this thread am I claiming that FSD is safe enough to be used without human oversight. I'm also not claiming that Tesla has delivered on their promises (they obviously haven't). I am comparing the capabilities of autonomous systems using evidence that is publicly available. Since we don't have comparable statistics across manufacturers or some sort of standardized road test, I think "miles between human interventions" is a useful measure of autonomous capabilities. That's what has been used to demonstrate safety of other autonomous systems, and I see no good reason why such a metric should be ignored in this case.

[vel0city]

More than a random Twitter feed and a news post from a company which is known to spread lies, that's for sure.

[ggreer]

How about if a guy who wrote an article titled Five Things My Roomba Does Better Than My Tesla[1] later drove across the country without intervening?[2] Unless all three people in the car are lying, it seems like an independent example of going thousands of miles without intervening.

1. https://www.thedrive.com/opinion/40604/five-things-my-roomba...

2. https://www.thedrive.com/news/a-tesla-actually-drove-itself-...

[vel0city]

> Both are deeply knowledgeable about Tesla’s Full-Self Driving suite and Roy stressed that he couldn’t have completed the trip without them.

Totally fully self driving even though you need not one, not two, but three autonomous driving experts with you. And be sure to have a second car with you when your first autonomous vehicle strands you. Sure sounds like a reliable system ready for the masses to use on public roadways!

[ggreer]

I think you misread the article. The stranding was because they left a place without one of the passengers and had to go back to get him. It had nothing to do with autonomous driving. I’m not sure what help the autonomous driving experts added beyond recommending cleaning the cameras at each stop. None of them work for Tesla, and it’s not like they could tweak the software along the way.

I’m not making any claims about FSD’s safety or how ready it is for mass usage on public roads. I am trying to figure out what information would convince you that someone has used FSD for thousands of miles without intervening. Does this count or not? If not, why?

[tmule]

That’s a terribly low bar for evidence - it’s deciding to pick whatever self-reported data confirms your priors. Far more than 3 individuals believed that Ivermectin cured them of COVID - I, however, chose to not believe them and get vaccinated instead. FWIW, my experience with FSD on HW4 is that I don’t need to intervene roughly for a 100ish miles on a clear day on a freeway without construction or accidents. That’s good enough for me to subscribe during roadtrips, but Musk and his legion of supporters is overselling capabilities - as usual.

[ggreer]

One key difference in that analogy is that covid can clear up on its own, allowing people to convince themselves that some quackery worked. But cars don’t drive themselves thousands of miles, so anyone claiming their car did so (and posting photos of their FSD stats) would have to be deliberately lying.

Have Tesla and its fanboys overstated FSD’s capabilities? Absolutely. But I’m not saying that FSD is currently good enough that one should expect to have thousands of miles between interventions. I’m trying to convince someone that it has been done. The reason I’m trying to do this is because that same cannot be said for any other self-driving technology available in a consumer vehicle today, so claiming that FSD is no better than competing offerings is not accurate. FSD overhyped? Sure. Late? Extremely. Fraudulent, bordering on criminal? I could see that. But it’s still in a league of its own in terms of what it can do.

[UltraSane]

cryptographically signed timestamped raw log data.