[munificent]

My kids are high school age. It's hard to convey the deep existential dread their generation has about the future.

* They are growing up in a climate that is worse than any prior generation had and getting worse.

* In the US, they are growing up in a time with less upward mobility and more economic inequality than the previous several generations had.

* Trust in social institutions and government is crumbling before their eyes.

* Blue collar jobs are already gone and white collar jobs have no certainty because of AI. Almost all of the money has already been sucked out of artistic professions and what little is left is quickly evaporating because of AI.

Imagine you're 17 like my daughter and trying to decide what to major in in college. You want to pick something that you think is likely to give you some kind of decent career and sense of stability. What do you pick?

Because, I'll tell you, she asks me and I have no fucking idea what to say.

[EvanAnderson]

I'm hearing this from my 12 y/o daughter and it's breaking my heart.

When I was in school (US, Ohio, 48 y/o) we got the "if you don't go to college you'll flip burgers" spiel from our teachers / guidance counselors.

Last week she got a variant of that except the teacher thoughtfully added "and burger flipping will be done by robots so you can't even fall back to that". The teacher threw in a healthy dose of suggesting creative jobs will all be destroyed and that "learning to manage AI" is the only viable future career path.

Trades are what my daughter brought up as a viable career path (and I was proud when she did). She also pointed out her school focuses heavily on "college prep" and is loathe to even mention that trades exist.

Edit:

I'm telling my daughter to lean on her interpersonal skills and charisma, and take every opportunity to lead groups. Being a physically present, inspirational, and effective leader is, I figure, a role that isn't going to go away any time soon.

I didn't go to college (beyond an Associate I grudgingly completed) and I didn't end up "flipping burgers". I concentrated on marketable skills in an industry that was growing, and I leaned into good writing and communication, and entrepreneurship. I've tried to hold this up to her, though I am quick to concede that the world is different now, by a large margin, from when I got started.

[yw3410]

I really don't see why you think trades are insulated; as someone who dabbles in plumbing, plastering and electrical wiring.

A significant amount of demand for both is due to knowledge barriers - and the fact that you need to certify work.

[EvanAnderson]

LLMs aren't going to remove the "moat" that comes from owning specialized tools (sewer and drain cleaning machines, pro-quality welders, etc), and having a procurement and service infrastructure.

Individual property owners who want to dabble already have that option from the myriad YouTube videos available to them (and arguably they're more trustworthy than LLM slop), just as they've had with books and other media in the past. I don't see LLM-based trade "knowledge" as somehow fundamentally different.

Commercial service and construction isn't going to get put out of business any time soon by "dabblers" learning from LLMs.

[yw3410]

I'm not sure where you're based, but having friends who are tradies most of the procurement and service infrastructure isn't owned by them at all.

Putting in a new kitchen or rewiring a house isn't beyond the physical abilities of most people and their customers tend to be the same middle class knowledge workers which AI is expecting to cannibalize.

As to your point about the knowledge being freely available; just as it's easier to ask an LLM about software questions, the same is true for other fields. It might not be accurate, but it doesn't really need to be - it just needs to lower the barrier for people to try.

Basically what I'm saying is that I absolutely expect secondary side effects for the trades if it has a big impact on knowledge workers as well.

[sneak]

> Blue collar jobs are already gone

This isn't true at all. There's never been a better time to be in the trades.

[munificent]

I should have been clearer, but by "blue collar" I was thinking more argriculture and manufacturing. Most of the farm jobs are gone from automation and most of the factory jobs are gone to China.

You're right that the trades are still an option and one my daughter is seriously considering. It's a mixed bag. Those jobs still exist, pay decently, and aren't likely to be taken away by AI soon. But many of them are brutal on your body and the sexism is rampant.

[sneak2]

Stop spam calling people you harasser

[sneak]

I’m not and never have - please contact me directly at the email address in my profile to give me more information about why you think I’m involved in such activities. I’d like to know if someone is joe-jobbing me.

[xienze]

> There's never been a better time to be in the trades.

I imagine it was _slightly_ better when you didn't have to worry about unlimited numbers of illegal immigrants ready and willing to undercut you.

[dalyons]

I feel for you deeply. I’m equally fearful of this for my children, but one small blessing of my kids being very young is at least the ambiguity will probably be over by the time they have to decide. I don’t expect there to be good choices, but at least it will be clear?

[tithe]

How about professions that require licensing to practice (civil engineering, accounting, insurance, actuarial science, law, medicine, pharmacy, nursing), or work in the government sector (defense, military, municipal/state/federal agencies)?

[pprotas]

I'd go with nail technician, barber, electrician, mechanic, beauty salon, plumber, coffee shop, window washer, construction

I see these types of jobs flourishing in my community. My barber is fully booked for the next month, and a hair salon owner in my street bought a new property and started a second hair salon... In the same street! And the second salon is also fully booked.

[i_love_retros]

I think being a chef is a pretty future proof career choice. For AI to kill that profession it would need a very dexterous robotic body and the ability to taste, and it would need the special something that determines good taste.

[munificent]

Probably future-proof in that it won't get any worse than it already is, but the food industry is notoriously miserable. Shit pay, bad hours, extremely stressful work environment, lots of drug use, etc.

[orangecoffee]

Nursing perhaps? It seems like caring for other people would be useful even in an otherwise runaway AI world.

[munificent]

My other daughter is likely to go into something medicine-releated. That's a good suggestion. My oldest daughter really doesn't like touching people, so medicine is probably the last thing she'd ever want to do.