[yw3410]

I really don't see why you think trades are insulated; as someone who dabbles in plumbing, plastering and electrical wiring.

A significant amount of demand for both is due to knowledge barriers - and the fact that you need to certify work.

[EvanAnderson]

LLMs aren't going to remove the "moat" that comes from owning specialized tools (sewer and drain cleaning machines, pro-quality welders, etc), and having a procurement and service infrastructure.

Individual property owners who want to dabble already have that option from the myriad YouTube videos available to them (and arguably they're more trustworthy than LLM slop), just as they've had with books and other media in the past. I don't see LLM-based trade "knowledge" as somehow fundamentally different.

Commercial service and construction isn't going to get put out of business any time soon by "dabblers" learning from LLMs.

[yw3410]

I'm not sure where you're based, but having friends who are tradies most of the procurement and service infrastructure isn't owned by them at all.

Putting in a new kitchen or rewiring a house isn't beyond the physical abilities of most people and their customers tend to be the same middle class knowledge workers which AI is expecting to cannibalize.

As to your point about the knowledge being freely available; just as it's easier to ask an LLM about software questions, the same is true for other fields. It might not be accurate, but it doesn't really need to be - it just needs to lower the barrier for people to try.

Basically what I'm saying is that I absolutely expect secondary side effects for the trades if it has a big impact on knowledge workers as well.