[drnick1]

> Given that the US failed to seize Iran's uranium stockpile and failed to open the Strait of Hormuz militarily

The U.S. hasn't even come close to trying to seize the uranium and open the Straight militarily. When a country had most of its air force and navy destroyed, it is not in a position to demand anything. The Iranians have some missiles and drones left, but they are increasingly isolated and on their last legs economically. These "talks" have to be understood as a negotiated surrender that would leave what is left of the regime in place in exchange for complete disarmament.

[ElProlactin]

Comments like this ignore all the lessons from Vietnam and, to a large extent, Afghanistan.

There's a reason "the U.S. hasn't even come close to trying to seize the uranium and open the Straight militarily".

[megamike]

"History does not repeat itself, it rhymes"

[__patchbit__]

BigWar and BigAI may install surprise on the storyline.

[petesergeant]

> When a country had most of its air force and navy destroyed, it is not in a position to demand anything

If they can keep Hormuz closed, they are absolutely in a position to demand things from a president whose party will be toast if gas prices rise too much.

[Rotdhizon]

It is heavily speculated that the rescue op on the downed pilot was a cover for a failed op regarding HEU extraction in that area. The info available on it online makes no sense for it to have just been a rescue op.

What legitimate reports detail their military losses? Practically every single thing the US is pushing out is pure untrustworthy propaganda on the subject. Even if those specific elements are destroyed, it doesn't mean much. Planes and boats are for forward aggression. They have primarily been wrecking havoc with missiles and drones, which they supposedly have plenty more of.

Iran is China and Russia's pivot point into the West. China isn't going to let such a massive intelligence and military asset go to waste. I'd just about guarantee they were involved in strong arming Pakistan into pushing for peace talks last week to avoid the threatened total destruction. Short of a nuke being dropped or the entire country being bombed to shreds, Iran isn't going anywhere any time soon.

[mandeepj]

> Iran is China and Russia's pivot point into the West

Yeah, Iran is just front face, this is Russia and China’s war. Latter entity gets to test all their technology, ammunition without actually being in the war. They did the same thing by using Pakistan while they were fighting India.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/11/politics/us-intelligence-iran...

[Gud]

This is USAs war, nobody else wants it.

[queenkjuul]

This war belongs to Bibi and Donny and nobody else

[mandeepj]

Totally! I was talking about Iran as a defending country

[mempko]

Iran has showed it's neighbors something powerful which is US military can not protect you. The damage Iran did to us military bases is under reported.

[iugtmkbdfil834]

FWIW, the whole conflict is a study on how much wars have changed. Information was always a part of it, but I have never seen it at a point, where I am entirely unsure on what is actually happening. Granted, some of the confusion appears to be by design courtesy of our president, who considers flailing some sort of grand strategy ( which may well work in real estate, but is ill-suited for something like this ). I can only speak for myself, but I find myself hesitating hard. I have zero doubt everyone is lying, but I have never seen such a wide chasm between two versions of the world we all occupy.

[SpicyLemonZest]

With respect, I think it's extremely clear what's actually happening, and the idea that it's confusing is a defense mechanism. The US and Israel launched a series of decapitation strikes, with the explicit and repeatedly stated expectation that this would lead to the overthrow of the Iranian government.

Then it didn't work, so they started a strategic bombing campaign.

Then that campaign proved ineffective at keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, leading to a sustained oil crisis.

So now here we are, with the entire world in a worse position than the status quo, and yet neither the US nor Iran feeling so defeated that they're willing to accept a conclusion worse than the status quo.

[iugtmkbdfil834]

What you say might be true, but what you are saying this with some benefit of hindsight ( and even that is incomplete as we will likely learn more in years to come ).

<< So now here we are, with the entire world in a worse position than the status quo, and yet neither the US nor Iran feeling so defeated that they're willing to accept a conclusion worse than the status quo.

And this is exactly what I am referring to. The physical reality is what it is and won't care much for propaganda ( even soviet Russia eventually learned you can't sustain that forever ). But, to your point, I don't see both sides showing much hesitation.

If it helps, I am not saying you are wrong, but you may be already too entrenched in your worldview if you see fog of war as 'defense mechanism' and not a designed feature now supercharged by AI ( with some fascinating examples too ).

[general1465]

This is comment on level "Russia did not try to fight properly yet!"

[hgoel]

Insane reasoning after threatening genocide, the "no quarter" comment, previous bad faith negotiations, then further bombing the people trying to negotiate in previous attempts.

This isn't just about the current regime wanting to stay in power, do you think the average Iranian is going to trust the side that literally threatened to end their civilization overnight? That goes far beyond calling for regime change.

[WarmWash]

May I remind you the Iranian regime was locking down the internet and shooting protesters in the street in the weeks leading up to the attack.

[hgoel]

How does that justify threatening genocide and the end of their civilization?

Having previously lived in Iran for 4 years, I know that the Iranian regime is very oppressive and cruel, but all the US has done is fuel them. They thought that bombing Iran and killing Khamenei would lead to civil war and a collapse of the regime. It did none of that and invited retaliation. In return, the US just made all of the regime's claims true by making the very threats the regime had been saying were the US's intentions for the Iranian people.

Being precise and consistent in messaging that the goal was regime change would've been the absolute bare minimum bar for lending credibility to this war.

[WarmWash]

Trump is not particularly intelligent.

[postsantum]

Didn't americans/israelis admit recently they had mossad agents to incite the violence and supplied guns?

Hamfisted propaganda is not working as well as before

[WarmWash]

They still certainly are doing that. But the movement against the regime is organic going back years now. Iron fisted ultra conservative theocrats suck

[queenkjuul]

May i remind you that literally nothing on earth justifies genocide

[thot_experiment]

LMAO ok, I mean that's bad but if we're referencing history to contextualize a situation let's start with the USA and UK deciding that "sovereign country" isn't a real thing if they vote to nationalize their oil industry. We're heading toward decade 8 of FAFO here with zero lessons learned.

[dimator]

Similar shit happening in North Korea. Should the US go there next?

Regime change was NOT the goal, right? Wasn't that the party line?

[raincole]

No one goes for NK because they have nuke. The exact situation the US/Israel try to prevent for Iran.

[dimator]

This is Saddam's WMDs all over again.

[drnick1]

Regime change isn't the goal per se, but disarmament is. Angry mullahs without missiles and nukes are harmless.

[SpicyLemonZest]

Whoever told you this was lying to you. Trump released a statement on the first night of the war explicitly stating that regime change was the goal. Disarmament is the new goal he fabricated when the first one didn't work.

[dimator]

I don't think there's any point in digging into soil to implant the goal posts anymore, because they'll be moved in 6 hours. Best to just use a couple of shills to hold them up.

[megamike]

and N Korea is sidelined by the USA because N Korea does not have anything we 'want' i.e. oil gold silver rare earth......

[SpicyLemonZest]

But why hasn't the US come close to trying given their overwhelming advantages in firepower? To me, and I suspect to Iran, it seems clear that it's because the Trump regime fears the domestic costs of doing so. He's already feuding with formerly loyal cronies in the media over a dozen military deaths and $4 gas; can he really afford to risk what the response might be to hundreds or thousands of dead American soldiers with little to show for it but an extended oil crisis?

[bertylicious]

Interesting. It seems like you're one of those persons that actually believe what Trump and Hegseth are saying regarding the war. Is that so?

[bawolff]

> The U.S. hasn't even come close to trying to seize the uranium and open the Straight militarily.

That's true, but also irrelavent.

USA probably could do these things if they tried, given enough time and resources. It seems pretty clear that Trump doesn't want to spend the resources (and lives) required to do so. Hence negotiations. Iran probably sees that the war is incredibly unpopular in USA and figures trump lacks the political capital to continue, so they are probably trying to drive a hard bargain. In turn, Trump might in turn decide continuing is cheaper than the onerous terms iran wants and continue the war.

I predict more war, since as much as this war is politically bad for trump, he also hates "losing".

[drnick1]

> It seems pretty clear that Trump doesn't want to spend the resources (and lives) required to do so.

Events so far suggest the opposite. This is the first president in decades that took decisive action against Iran. Iran is weaker than ever, and this is perhaps a once in a century opportunity to end the Islamic threat once and for all. If Iran folds, Hamas, Hezbollah, and others will quickly follow and the region will be at peace.

[CapricornNoble]

>this is perhaps a once in a century opportunity to end the Islamic threat once and for all. If Iran folds, Hamas, Hezbollah, and others will quickly follow and the region will be at peace.

This is the exact same nonsense that Netanyahu said to the US Congress in 2002, when he insisted we invade Iraq. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_PDpwL8kuY

And what is the "Islamic threat", exactly? Why would attacking Iran end that threat, when the perpetrators of 9/11, for example, were mostly Saudis?

[adrian_b]

What you say is absolutely ridiculous.

Israel would have been now at permanent peace if they had not murdered Yitzhak Rabin, or if Ariel Sharon had not succeeded to sabotage the government of Ehud Barak and to restart the hostilities with the Palestinians.

No matter how much they succeed to destroy in Iran, that will never bring peace any closer. By going on this path, there is only one way to achieve "peace": kill every Iranian, man, woman and child, and kill every descendant of Palestinians, man, woman and child and also kill any other Arabs or Muslims who may feel solidarity with genocide victims. Until the "final solution" is achieved, any human who is killed makes peace less likely, not more likely. Therefore any supporter of the idea that the Iran war means "progress towards peace" is a supporter of the "final solution".

The reason why there is no peace is because a part of the elites of Israel do not want peace, because the permanent state of war in Israel has been extremely profitable for them. In no other country is it possible to exploit the employees so hard as in Israel, because those who would attempt to have a better balance between work and personal life would be labeled as non-patriotic traitors, who want their country to be defeated by its enemies. This permanent war economy is perfect for Israeli business owners and for the Israeli government.

[bawolff]

This is silly, plenty of wars, even vicious ones, have ended in peace without killing everyone on one of the sides.

> This permanent war economy is perfect for Israeli business owners and for the Israeli government.

This is obviously not true when the IDF is primarily a conscript army. Conscription is bad for business. It is very difficult to run a business when your employees are being conscripted.

Not to mention how much of a disaster all of this has been for Israel's reputation in the world. Trade, not to mention tourism is based on reputation, and other then the defense industry, Israel is not doing well PR wise at the moment.

[adrian_b]

I have worked for many years in Israel, so what I say is from first hand knowledge, not from hearsay.

You are right that conscription is bad for business.

Nevertheless, in most businesses the employees lost to conscription are a small fraction of the workforce. Much more is gained from the pressure that can be applied on all the other employees, due to the permanent war economy. I pitied my Israeli colleagues, most of whom were very nice people, but who were powerless against the system that exploited them.

You are right about the reputation, but it appears that the power is held by those who do not care about reputation.

I have lived in Israel both before and after Ariel Sharon and his accomplices seized the power. The differences in tourism were huge, because before that you could walk safely anywhere through Israel, while after that you had to avoid carefully any place inhabited by Arabs, unless you had appropriate weapons with you, for any emergency.

[bawolff]

I agree with most of what you wrote other than the first sentence. Iran is weak right now, relative to the past. That is probably why the war is happening now as opposed to in the past.

Nonetheless, Trump has been utterly incompetent on the political side of things. There is low support for the war in USA, which directly translates to being risk averse when it comes to casualities (or even short term oil prices!). Trump is happy to bomb iran from planes. He does not seem willing to put american soldiers at risk in a significant way or be in it for the long haul. I'm pretty sure Iran has noticed this and it informs their strategy.