[fooey]

New reporting that an A-10 ~was also shot down~ has also gone down (unconfirmed if it was shot down)

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/03/world/iran-war-trump...

> A second Air Force combat plane crashed in the Persian Gulf region on Friday, and the lone pilot was safely rescued, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. The A-10 Warthog attack plane went down near the Strait of Hormuz about the same time that an Air Force F-15E was shot down over Iran, the officials said. In that incident, one crew member was rescued and search-and-rescue operators are looking for the second airman. Officials provided scant details about the A-10 crash, including how and where it happened.

there's some additional osint rumor mill that a blackhawk helicopter involved in rescue operations was also shot down but claims that crew been recovered

[rurp]

On top of these cases there is all of the aircraft that has been destroyed while grounded. The high tech AWACS getting blown up was a big hit, among others. The losses are likely much worse than we know since the military has been trying to keep a lid on most of them.

[ttul]

Not to mention the multiple THAAD radars taken offline. Those are $500M assets - and only 8 exist in the world. 24,000 precise transceivers all liquid cooled… not available on Amazon for next day deliver either.

[bijowo1676]

a single AN/FPS-132 radar costs $1.1 bln, not $500m. And Iran stuck 17 of the CENCCOM sites hosting radars of all kinds across Qarar, Bahrain, Iraq, UAE, Saudi, Jordan, Israel, etc).

Total cost is so much bigger, it is staggering. The whole CENTCOM is blind basically, as well as Iron Dome which relied on these radars - all blind now, in addition to long-range early nuke detection to protect CONUS is also blind.

in addition to cost, they all require Rare Earth Minerals, and China has banned the export of these (they own like 99% of the market).

So not only CENTCOM is blind and incurred damage in high single digit billions, but also will be unable to repair the damage any time soon (probably for decades) even if the funding were made to be available

Government obviously pretty silent on all these failures and media doesn't want to dig and ask hard questions

Sources: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/world/middleeast/iran-str...

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-radars-airstrikes/

[fsckboy]

>So not only CENTCOM is blind and incurred damage in high single digit billions, but also will be unable to repair the damage any time soon (probably for decades) even if the funding were made to be available

not just what i quoted, but your source does not say any of what you are saying.

your source says: Satellite images show damage near vital equipment on sites in at least five countries https://archive.ph/QHNXW

[schappim]

> Iron Dome relied on these radars — all blind now.

Iron Dome’s primary fire-control radar is the Israeli EL/M-2084 Multi-Mission Radar, not the USA’s AN/FPS-132

[bijowo1676]

GCC radars are needed for early warning, not only fire control.

the evidence is Alert system may not even work for missiles, or give very short warning (seconds to 1 minute instead of the usual 10 minutes)

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-03-...

If we are speaking of interception/penetration, these are also solved by Iran using several strategies that Israel/CENTCOM did not expect:

  1. use of cluster munitions
  2. exhaustion of expensive interceptor inventory (exchanging $7000 shahed drone for $3-5 mln worth of PAC-3 interceptors)
  3. Use of penetration aids
  4. Changing trajectory at the terminal stage
  5. coordinating swarm attacks (let AD to intercept SRBMs, while the real damage is caused by abundant cheap Shaheds that fly too slow and low to be detected)

Sources: https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russia_likely_modified_irania...

https://www.csis.org/analysis/unpacking-irans-drone-campaign...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/23/iran-cluster-b...

[reissbaker]

Both you and the Guardian are confused (or perhaps the Guardian is just trying to ride the popular understanding of the "Iron Dome" as a super catch all missile defense system vs reality). The Iron Dome has nothing to do with shooting down ballistic missiles. The Iron Dome isn't designed to target ballistic missiles: it targets short-range rockets and artillery like the ones fired by Hamas and Hezbollah, and has been modified to also target slow-moving drones (although the Iron Beam is intended to be the main drone defense system in the future). The Iranian missiles are targeted by different systems: David's Sling and the Arrow 2 and 3.

The Iron Dome does not depend on the American radar system in Qatar that Iran hit. It would be crazy for it to do so when it only targets short range attacks. If someone is telling you that the "Iron Dome is blind" because an American radar in Qatar got hit by a missile, you should probably update the amount you trust that source negatively, since not only is that not true, but it doesn't even pass the sniff test to anyone who knows what the Iron Dome is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David%27s_Sling

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_3

[trhway]

>Israel/CENTCOM did not expect

that after 4 years of Ukraine war where those tactics have been widely used, in some cases by both sides, and where Russia has even been using the same Iranian drones

[thisislife2]

I've read that NATO radars in Turkey were equally important to provide early warning to Israel. It's not far-fetched to assume that US radars in the middle-east did too. US THAAD in Israel would definitely be networked into those.

[awesome_dude]

I think that there is a problem here - you're talking about the firing of the defense system at targets, whereas knowing that that radar needs to be readied because missiles have been detected is what the other radar system provided.

[testbjjl]

Remind me in two weeks?

[ignoramous]

> Government obviously pretty silent on all these failures and media doesn't want to dig and ask hard questions

Some analysts are sure drumming up the severity [0]. In the fog of war, it is hard to tell what's exaggerated and what's not. The proposal by the current US Admin to increase defence spending by 40% to $1.5t is not a welcome sign for those opposed to heavy spending, for any number of reasons.

[0] https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-last-molecule... / https://archive.vn/5H0L5

[grafmax]

> In the fog of war, it is hard to tell what's exaggerated and what's not.

Honestly it's more than that. Propaganda and lies put out by ALL actors in this conflict. If you want to understand what's going on I think you have the expose yourself to as many competing sources as you can find. And still you're going to end up with a very shoddy picture. The term for this is epistemic collapse.

[awesome_dude]

This.

One of the things I have disliked about the Iranian conflict is that their propaganda/messaging has been, by quite a margin, more reliable than what the US/Israel have been putting out.

I like to think that I live in a free/liberal democratic portion of the world, but seeing the "other side" being more honest really puts a dent in things.

[roenxi]

The multiple sources don't know either, the reason the picture is shoddy is it is necessarily composed of the primary information that is coming from ... people with the strongest incentive to lie. There aren't a lot of independent ways to assess the situation. And of course that is part of the fog of war - even the militairy struggles to put together a picture of what is going on. I'd imagine that defining where the front-line is presents a complex and uncertain exercise for the commanders involved.

The only thing I think can be said reliably is that this has been going on for weeks, the Strait seems to be more closed than open, Trump is clearly out of his depth and the US is sending more units to the area. All of those point to a serious problem for the US military.

[3abiton]

Iran was known to have such capabilities, it's baffling the US wasn't more prepared in its gulf bases.

[lonelyasacloud]

> it's baffling the US wasn't more prepared in its gulf bases.

Probably want to drop the assumptions about it having anything much to do with US interests. Better to start looking at who has had the alliance that contained them damaged and their oil sanctions lifted.

[mgfist]

If only there was a 4 year long war where thousands of drones are flown every day both on offense and defense that we could have learned from ..

[mayama]

Problem is that there was too much propaganda in that war, that parsing propaganda is too difficult even for military watchers, let alone general public. Only when american weapons are being destroyed that, US MIC is willing to acknowledge that may be million+ usd missiles are not solution to cheap drones.

[ericd]

Fact check on this brand new account?

[fsckboy]

I read the source he listed and it doesn't say any of that

[ericd]

Ah thanks, I think that was added after I commented.

[refulgentis]

This is the second time in 2 weeks I’ve seen a comment like this on HN. 37 years old. Been on here 16 years. Incredibly odd to me. Just announce “can someone else tell me if this is true?”

[ericd]

That’s what I was doing, because I don’t think assertions like “CENTCOM is blind” should just sit out there without evidence.

[sethev]

IMHO, people making claims should provide the evidence for them. One link is behind a paywall and the other clearly states that it is making informed speculations.

I could make all sorts of claims on the spot here. It doesn't create a duty for people reading this thread to go investigate them.

[Ms-J]

If you spend a moment to verify the info that is the fact check.

No one can do the thinking for you.

[ericd]

Did a quick search, didn’t see confirmation that they’re blind/that all radars had been knocked out. Was asking whether others who know more about this topic than me would confirm.

[nujabe]

Are you asking someone to fact check publicly available information for you ? Even NYT reported this

[ericd]

Traveling with kids on spring break, I don’t have time to read all war related news, and it tends to set off my propaganda account alarm when someone registers a new account to drop a bunch of assertions on such a politically divisive topic. So I was asking whether someone could confirm things like “The whole CENTCOM is blind basically, as well as Iron Dome which relied on these radars - all blind now, in addition to long-range early nuke detection to protect CONUS is also blind.”

There’s a good reason new accounts are colored green.

[the__alchemist]

New account that only has politics-adjacent posts; worth being skeptical.

[amirhirsch]

Gp was referring to AN/TPY2 which is the THAAD radar.

Iron dome has nothing to do with that systems.

[dzonga]

a war end up being a war about information.

hence the first department that goes into full throttle mode in any war - is the department of propaganda | press corps (as modernly called).

so we gonna see lies on both sides - Iranians | US / Israel. with the truth in between.

[HarHarVeryFunny]

No problem - Trump is asking for an FY 2027 1.5 TRILLION dollar military budget, and just said that Medicare and Medicare may need to be cut to afford it.

[nashashmi]

A reminder that these losses will mean we all each lose something. And Israel gains a whole lot more.

What’s the next country we move to?

[pstuart]

Cuba.

In a "rational" world the quagmire of Iran would make such a move unlikely, but with this administration the prospect of an "easy win" could have them just go for it.

After all, nobody's stopping them. The Constitution only remains so that the 2A fanatics can LARP at being patriots.

[FrustratedMonky]

Iran fired at 17. Do we know how many radars are actually offline? I thought it was only 2.

So maybe not blind? but also, hard to verify.

[quantum_state]

These very expensive toys are the reasons of the to be $1.5 trillion DoW budget. It’s insane and not sustainable.

[laughing_man]

$1.5 trillion is the budget the Pentagon is requesting for next year. It's highly unlikely Congress will give them that much money.

[positron26]

> Rare Earth Minerals... ...unable to repair the damage any time soon (probably for decades)

Look bro, if we can make SR-71s out of pizza ovens, I'm pretty sure somewhere in the CIA can scrounge up a few ounces of gadoluminium. Tankie dreams are placation for those who wait for somebody else to make the birdseed fall from the sky.

[outside2344]

And running out of Patriots

[trhway]

Looks like Iran is doing what i suggested Ukraine should have done to Russia https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42529638

[Rotdhizon]

Absolutely. A big part of the western Ukrainian defense was solely to drain the Russian military apparatus and drain they have. It will take Russia decades to rebuild their fighting force. Now Russia and China are doing it right back to us and the intelligence gained from this conflict is extremely valuable. Come to find out the US has been sitting on ego in its military more than actual might. The previously untouchable machines of war in the sky are now very much touchable. All that's left is for them to sink a battle ship. If Iran can shoot them down, you can bet China can inflict exponentially more harm. Drain our intercept missiles, destroy radars, corrode relationships, etc. At this point, China has the world on a silver platter if they want it.

[oblio]

In case you haven't been following Ukraine, that's what it's doing. It has multiple cheap long range drones (FP-1, FP-2, etc) plus more expensive ones (FP-5), and it's making them in the millions a year, I think.

They just took out 40% of Russian oil export capacity.

[mgfist]

That works for Iran because US air-defense is still comprised mainly of advanced and expensive systems (like the Patriot). It doesn't work as well in Ukraine or Russia because both have figured out drone interceptors quite well. Both countries do the type of attack drone clustering you suggest. I read somewhere that a strike like from Russia that might include 60-70 drones + ballistic missiles in the hopes that one or 2 get through.

[gessha]

Running out of patriots as well.

[juliusceasar]

This is good news. Actually not for those whom chose to start the 2nd Epstein war.

I really hope that Israeli and Iranian governments both go to hell. May both destroy each other.

[iwontberude]

For the United States, the government doesn't have the capability to extricate Israel from its political system, but the feds can create blowback for Israel which makes them less capable to influence the US in the future while achieving other strategic aims in the region. US war planners know plenty about blow back and I think this is being done on purpose. I am terrified for innocent Israelis, Iranians and Gulf state residents that have been led into this. Most of the states and peoples in the Middle East who have been destroyed used to be allies with the US. That isn't on accident.

[readitalready]

Government could sanction Israel like they did to Iran.

[Betelbuddy]

The problems with inventory of THAAD and similar missile systems is actually quite serious: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47504505

[hokkos]

Is this story even true ? There has been fake AI photo about destructed THAAD radars : https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.A2B239E

[daemonologist]

If you scroll to the bottom of that page, they discuss possible evidence of damage to the radar from satellite imagery.

[reliabilityguy]

AFAIK, the one in Qatar was paid by Qatar and operated by US.

[HaloZero]

I thought all the US ones existed in US states/territories? The ones in the middle east could be potentially destroyed true though.

[FlyingBears]

we have likely moved on from this to satellite as a stop gap.

[nradov]

Moved on how? Satellites are useful for launch detection and cueing but as far as we know there isn't a satellite constellation capable of tracking airborne targets with enough precision for targeting. And the military couldn't really keep such satellites secret: the emissions would be impossible to hide.

[motbus3]

Cmon. At least it is all justified with good reasons!

[blitzar]

> not available on Amazon for next day deliver either

Available on aliexpress - but has longer shipping times and of course those tariffs, that you don't have to pay, that you have to pay.

[functional_dev]

yes, this part I find to be most interesting.. how many losses before the picture changes for the public?

[picsao]

The problem is that the losses indicate something worse. A breakdown of doctrinal disciplin- mostly created by chronic underestimation of advesaries in the region. If Israel can pulp the proxxies that easy, iran would be easy. Thus it was not necessary to do what ukraine does- mostly keeping planes in the air so they are not bombed on the runway, rotating them among bases - etc.

Which is specified as a strategy in the doctrine of the airforce.

[oa335]

> breakdown of doctrinal disciplin- mostly created by chronic underestimation of advesaries in the region

"Keep in mind that the greatest entities, whether they are cities or nations, are the ones most susceptible to the pride that comes before a fall."

Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War

[kackerlacker]

This is exactly the situation I think of when I hear news of rescue missions. Running a rescue in a place with functional air defense is a recursive rescue problem that could quickly get out of control.

[MikeTheGreat]

Isn't that basically the plotline of the Blackhawk Down movie?

And, more importantly, the real-life events on which it's based?

[0cf8612b2e1e]

Exactly what happens to me in Kerbel Space Program.

Rescue team for the rescue team.

[markovs_gun]

The first time I ever attempted a rescue mission in KSP, I ended up stranding 5 different kerbals in various orbita nearby trying to get the first one, and of course every one was a bigger and more complicated craft trying to save as many kerbals as possible. Eventually I just gave up and put a giant cross memorial in orbit, part as a reference to Neon Genesis Evangelion, and part as a memorial to the like 6 kerbals I left stranded in space.

[verzali]

Kerbals don't need food or water and can live forever on a limited air supply. I once rescued a kerbal who got stuck around their equivalent of Venus for multiple years. So it's all fine, they'll patiently wait...

[wafflemaker]

Did you tactically forgot to put parachute on the landing pod? Or run out of fuel mid mission?

[downrightmike]

Slaps car, thsi baby can fit soo many rescue teams in it

[zabzonk]

The US did it all the time in Vietnam.

[ranger207]

And it did sometimes get way out of control: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rescue_of_Bat_21_Bravo

[wahern]

My neighbor was a helicopter pilot in Vietnam, the one mentioned in this article who came back with over 100 bullet holes in his helicopter after the rescue operation: https://historynet.com/rescue-in-death-valley-with-hhm-163-t... That rescue wasn't to retrieve a pilot, but nearly 200 surviving soldiers being overrun.

It's difficult to squeeze stories out of him, mostly because it was so long ago and ancient history to him. Just to put his timeline in perspective, after the war he befriended a captain of the White Russian Navy who had to flee after losing the Russian Revolution. Alot of White Russians ended up in San Francisco, which is where my neighbor settled down in the '60s. He was also a military escort for Nelson Rockefeller, I think during one Rockefeller's campaigns. Once a staunch Republican, needless to say he's not a fan of where the Republican Party has ended up since then. Still a gung-ho Marine, though, who keeps insisting on climbing over our 10-foot fence whenever he locks himself out of his house, which means I have to jump the fence. Were it anyone else I'd just call and pay for a locksmith myself, or badger him to finally give me copies of his keys.

[rkagerer]

Thanks for sharing, that's a crazy read.

[onion2k]

That's an example of things getting out of control.

[i_love_retros]

Possibly the best example

[harambae]

Not sure if it was actually used, but a fun idea for pilot recovery..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiller_ROE_Rotorcycle

[jasomill]

The Fulton recovery system[1] using a self-inflating balloon was used in production.

Though if Iranian air defenses are capable of shooting down an F-15, mounting a rescue operation with a C-130 may not be the brightest idea.

Anyone know the minimum speed of a B-2?

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fulton_surface-to-air_recovery...

[orbital-decay]

>Lifted off the ground, the pig began to spin as it flew through the air at 125 miles per hour (200 km/h). It arrived on board uninjured, but in a disoriented state. When it recovered, it attacked the crew.

Understandable

[XorNot]

Iranian Air defense getting lucky is different to it being impenetrable.

This is not a binary situation, and a lucky F-15 kill would not make it a good idea to concentrate more assets in an area where the US will now focus more resources.

[jwilber]

…against the viet cong, where the biggest risk was the pilot getting pierced from small arms fire (in addition to the helo going down from pilot error). Quite different from the anti-air weapons modern day Iran possesses.

[Edman274]

Are you aware that hundreds of American fixed wing aircraft were lost to surface to air missiles in North Vietnam? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._aircraft_losses_t...

[jwilber]

Ah yeah, well I didn’t know it was that high!

But I’m responding to the rescue mission comment, which, since Vietnam, have overwhelmingly employed helicopters (Huey’s then, Black Hawks today). But machinery aside, the larger point is that air operations will likely go worse here than they did in Vietnam, unfortunately for both sides.

[bigyabai]

Or a MiG-17 that could outrate your F-4/F-105 at every subsonic flight regime.

[greedo]

You're conflating the Viet Cong with North Vietnam.

[alonethrowaway]

I imagine Trump would threaten to nuke a major city if it didnt stop and pilots werent returned safe. Not that I agree, but I think that's what he would emotionally do.

[gpderetta]

What are A-10s doing there? There isn't yet any ground operation, right?

[thinkcontext]

They were largely being used for maritime patrol against fast boats. I saw a newsblurb a couple days ago that more were being sent to the region.

[AdrianB1]

Cheaper to operate than any fighter, longer endurance, good for patrolling over the Strait. Filling the gap between helicopters and fighters with a big, but cheap cannon.

[stackghost]

The A-10 carries AGM 88 anti-radiation missiles, and while it's a slow aircraft it can still passably perform SEAD with the AGM 88.

[bijowo1676]

Geran-2 (which is Russian licenced Shahed drone) also carries air-to-air missile, so sending slow archaic manned airframe is just suicide mission (aka shaheed)

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/russia-used-shahed-drone-arme...

[chithanh]

That is not a Shahed drone, that is a Geran-2 drone. Which is similar from the outside but not the same. Also Iran doesn't have stock of R-60s I think.

[angry_octet]

There's also no possibility that a Geran would be able to engage an A-10. It doesn't have a RADAR, it is much slower and less manoeuvrable.

[bijowo1676]

radar is not required for A2A missiles with infrared seekers, like the R60

[elictronic]

Manpads (man portable air defense) works just fine.

[pc86]

"Just fine" for what? AGM88 is air-to-ground and manpads are surface-to-air. If you're implying that manpads work just fine instead of A-10s, you're wrong.

[fooker]

Well, the A-10 is down no matter how correct you feel you are.

Shoulder launched missiles are absolutely capable of taking down large slow aircrafts in 2026.

This is not a rpg from 1930

[misnome]

Exactly, someone might be at risk of reading the thread with a 1930s RPG

[stackghost]

I'm not sure that I understand what you are implying.

[beedeebeedee]

That A-10’s can’t suppress manpads

[stackghost]

Well, they absolutely can with a BRRRRT, but if you mean "AGM 88 HARMs are a poor weaponeering choice against a Misagh-3", then sure, no argument here. But a dude on a hilltop with a shoulder tube is not the only type of air defense.

I'm not sure why any of this is relevant. The question I was responding to was about why A-10s are even in-theatre, given there's no boots on the ground yet.

The answer to that question is "they're probably doing SEAD". They might also be there to hit Iranian naval drones, though I doubt it'd be effective in that role.

[alfalfasprout]

Well, A-10s are well suited for strafing runs, etc. Presumably they'd be sent in if the area they're entering is presumed safe. That clearly didn't pan out.

The reality is avoiding a ground operation was probably the wrong move at this point (ignoring the spicier broader debate of if the whole Iran campaign was the right call or not)

It's really hard to truly guarantee surface to air capabilities are gone when you're relying purely on sat images + aerial surveillance (and obviously this carries risk). Iran has fairly portable SAM systems that are public knowledge.

[ifyoubuildit]

> ignoring the spicier broader debate of if the whole Iran campaign was the right call or not

How spicy of a debate is that really? How many people outside of the admin and the dwindling hardcore trump base actually thought this was a good idea?

[YZF]

Apparently 37.7% of Americans, so roughly 116 million people, support the war. I'm not sure "this was a good idea" was a the exact question though.

https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/54454-most-americans-oppos...

https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-appro...

Clearly this war isn't popular but that's a far cry from saying there's no debate. Like many other topics/questions we're seeing people following their tribe and bubbles rather than actual debating.

[btilly]

I would question to what extent repeating propaganda, qualifies as debate.

Even if you do say that it qualifies, it doesn't qualify as productive debate.

There is really no productive debate to be had here. Even if you think that Iran needed to be bombed, it took absurd incompetence to start doing so before planning how to handle asymmetric warfare against drones in an affordable way.

[YZF]

Repeating propaganda does not generally qualify as debate.

Why isn't there a productive debate to be had here?

Your arguing that the incompetence has to do with handling drones. To me that statement feels close to "repeating propaganda" because the Shaed drones are generally handled in an affordable way which is by shooting them with bullets from helicopters: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uZ07pcDGE70

This is a method that has been used for a long time in Ukraine as well: https://www.reddit.com/r/Planes/comments/1qzj19h/an_f16_of_t...

https://taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics/us-apache-pilots-dro...

There are endless videos and news stories about how drones are shot down effectively by the UAE (with AH-64 cannons), by Israel (where Iran doesn't even bother sending drones over because none of them make it), and by Ukraine (including with newer counter-drone tech they have).

The propaganda says "we fire a 2 million dollar THAAD missile on a 50k dollar drone". Many can be shot down cheaply. Some are shot down with $500k AA missiles. We also need to account for anything destroyed on the ground and not launched. So it seems like your opening argument can certainly at the very least be debated.

OTOH it is true that some drones got through and inflicted significant damage. But maybe that's unavoidable to some degree.

Even beyond the base statement. If you think Iran needed to be bombed, e.g. because they were manufacturing 100 long range ballistic missiles per month and because they had enough nuclear material to make 12 bombs and were working on all the technology pieces to be able to put them on ballistic missiles and launch them, then what would be the alternative universe where we somehow magically came up with solutions to the asymmetric nature of this war? Would waiting for them to have a lot more missiles and drones and bury them deeper be a good thing or a bad thing. What would be the odds of the regime either compromising and giving up their abilities or collapsing without external intervention.

[diydsp]

Exactly. Support means saying "I accept the reduction in my social security and medicare and other govt services in exchange for this war."

[Esophagus4]

I also think there was an initial “euphoria” (I guess) during the initial days of the campaign.

People I know (even Iranian expats) were excited to see the regime get hammered and there was hope for possibility of change (and also a little bloodlust)… but I think as the war drags on and the US is exposed to be in an un-winnable mess, sentiment will continue to sour.

This has already started to happen in Nate Silver’s post you linked.

[HarHarVeryFunny]

Trump has been talking about destroying Iranian desalination plants, and "bombing the country back to the stone age". This is no surgical decapitation strike, nor one just targetting Iran's military capabilities. This is a vicious senile old man living out his dictator "I can do anything I like" fantasies, who could care less about helping the Iranian people, or those in America for that matter.

[asadotzler]

75 million using the YouGov number and just under 100 million using the Nate Silver average. (I think you must have used the more Trump-favorable number AND included children in your computation, which is not reasonable.)

Also worth noting that Nate Silver's measure has been declining for almost 3 weeks, the majority of the duration of the invasion.

Before the invasion, a University of Mariland poll says 55 million and a YouTov poll says 71 million support. These are useful numbers because we know there's a rally around the flag effect that distorts thinking during a conflict.

https://criticalissues.umd.edu/feature/do-americans-favor-at... https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/54158-few-americans-suppor...

[markovs_gun]

20-25% of Americans would support Trump pulling his pants down and taking a shit on the floor in the oval office on live TV. These people's opinions shouldn't be taken into account or respected in these discussions.

[lejalv]

That is an interesting take. Seen from elsewhere in the world, we cannot afford not taking into account a big chunk of the American electoral body, which is effectively at war with us (by various means).

Essentially, a MESA movement, “Make the Earth Shit Again”.

The obvious implication is that the rest of the world is at war with the US (by various means), and should act accordingly, starting with a wide-ranging consumer boycott of all US products.

[XorNot]

Which is right in line with the "crazification factor": https://kfmonkey.blogspot.com/2005/10/lunch-discussions-145-...

The relevant quote:

> Obama vs. Alan Keyes. Keyes was from out of state, so you can eliminate any established political base; both candidates were black, so you can factor out racism; and Keyes was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him. They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That's crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% Crazification Factor in any population.

[dylan604]

>>How many people outside of the admin and the dwindling hardcore trump base actually thought this was a good idea?

> Apparently 37.7% of Americans,

These are the same thing. The MAGA base is fracturing and the polls are showing that with the very number you are using as a retort.

[ifyoubuildit]

Your first link says 28% support it, so somewhere between 28 and 37%. I do wonder how many of those people could find Iran on a map, though I suppose you could ask the same about the people who are against it.

[smcin]

The first link (YouGov) in fact is even less enthusiastic than GP quoted: 28% of Americans strongly or somewhat support the war with Iran.

(setting aside that it's illegal under international law, and unauthorized by Congress)

[YZF]

I lost trust in humanity when I saw how many people on HN fell for the CERN Mario Kart April fools article.

[goatlover]

The number for boots on the ground is more like 12% though. And the people opposed to the war span various bubbles or tribes, including some right-wing influencers. You can easily find critiques of the conflict from various former military and intelligence officials across many podcasts, news media and Youtube channels.

[iugtmkbdfil834]

Surprisingly so, I would say. Without going into any identifying details, my buddy, who is otherwise fairly reasonable, thinks it was. I disagree. Reported country split ( US ) seems to fall some along common political lines though, so maybe we shouldn't be so surprised.

Then again.. I can no longer can rely on those surveys in any meaningful way.

[markdown]

> seems to fall some along common political lines though

While true, I think it's more correct to say that the determining factor is which television news media people most readily consume.

[dotancohen]

  > How many people outside of the admin and the dwindling hardcore trump base actually thought this was a good idea?

Almost every single Iranian in the diaspora. And every person who heard Iran chant Death To America while building a nuclear program and a ballistic missile program.

[verzali]

Way to go proving Iran right. Who wouldn't want to eliminate a nation that bombs and kills your civilians?

[dotancohen]

So I see that you agree that Israel must destroy a significant portion of Gaza - at least those parts of Gaza educated by UNRWA.

[drnick1]

I think that you will find that many people think that we ought to solve the 50 year old problem in the Mideast once and for all. Now that the Russians are busy, that Venezuela is down, that Syria has fallen, and that the Chinese are minding their own business is a good time to decapitate Iran. Also Cuba is next.

[ifyoubuildit]

What exactly are the problem and the solution?

[drnick1]

Permanently disarming Iran, and creating conditions favorable to the fall of the Islamist terrorist regime that has been bullying the Mideast since 1979.

[QuarterReptile]

North Korea was able to get nuclear weapons because we didn't want the carnage of artillery bombardment to Seoul that would have been the retaliation, had we stopped them.

Iran was close to achieving that same thing with ballistic missile bombardment of Europe.

The problem is that Iran, unlike NK, is run by a fanatical death cult with stated goal of attacking United States and history of running proxy militias in every nearby failed state, in a neighborhood that has no shortage of failed states.

[BigTTYGothGF]

So you're saying you want a solution, and you want it to be a final one?

[freefrog1234aa]

The military advantage of colonial powers, and the political weakness of the pawn countries is reduced making the great game harder. Venezuela and Syria fell because internally they were divided and the US could find traitors willing to sell out. That didn't happen in Iran, and Cuba will defend themselves if they are united.

[elictronic]

To my understanding blowing up drone boats designed to destroy shipping.

[jabwd]

The A-10 is a horrible friendly-fire as a service. Might as well use the thing as a bomb truck while you are still forced to keep it in service because certain brain cell lacking individuals think brr is good.

[PearlRiver]

I always wondered why China doesn't flood foreign war zones with weapons to field test their fancy new gear against the USAF. Seems like a no-brainer.

[roncesvalles]

They do. India-Pakistan was basically a field trial of Chinese AD. It failed miserably but the Chinese blame operator error (which is still valuable info; there is no reason to assume a PLA ground operator would be more competent than a Pakistani one).

[greedo]

They sell them. Military gear (at least aircraft and missiles) aren't cheap like an AK47. They have enjoyed watching India and Pakistan in their latest air battles. Lots of operational intel gleaned from that.

[YZF]

Your link and your quote does not say the A-10 was shot down though.

[Qem]

It's on NYT site now.

[edaemon]

Their point is that the NYT says it crashed, the cause isn't clear.

[malfist]

Do A-10's normally crash? Or is there reason to believe that an A-10 flying in hostile territory was downed because it was shot?

[dylan604]

It's an airplane. It is as susceptible to doors not being bolted on as much as a civilian flight. Maybe actually a higher chance of some benign mechanical issue as it is well known that air crews are often overworked with little to no sleep with the high tempo of sorties in these types of missions. Lots of historical examples of US military aircraft crashing from mechanical issues and not being shot down

[jjk166]

122 A-10s have been lost outside of combat over the years. 8 have been lost in combat.

Lots of flights, maintenance resources stretched thin, old aircraft - this is when you'd expect to see crashes.

[YZF]

My comment was re: stating it as fact which is misleading. Beliefs or guesses are not facts.

Military airplanes do crash, there are lots of crashes every year: https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2025/11/military-aircraft...

At war there's a lot more pressure on ground and air crews that can lead to more mistakes. Also the mission would be flown closer to the limits vs. training.

So... We don't know? If your question is whether that's a good guess/greater than zero probability then sure. Is it a certainty? No. The Iranians will claim they shot it down. The Americans may or may not admit and if they deny then people will say they're lying.