[bijowo1676]

a single AN/FPS-132 radar costs $1.1 bln, not $500m. And Iran stuck 17 of the CENCCOM sites hosting radars of all kinds across Qarar, Bahrain, Iraq, UAE, Saudi, Jordan, Israel, etc).

Total cost is so much bigger, it is staggering. The whole CENTCOM is blind basically, as well as Iron Dome which relied on these radars - all blind now, in addition to long-range early nuke detection to protect CONUS is also blind.

in addition to cost, they all require Rare Earth Minerals, and China has banned the export of these (they own like 99% of the market).

So not only CENTCOM is blind and incurred damage in high single digit billions, but also will be unable to repair the damage any time soon (probably for decades) even if the funding were made to be available

Government obviously pretty silent on all these failures and media doesn't want to dig and ask hard questions

Sources: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/world/middleeast/iran-str...

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-radars-airstrikes/

[fsckboy]

>So not only CENTCOM is blind and incurred damage in high single digit billions, but also will be unable to repair the damage any time soon (probably for decades) even if the funding were made to be available

not just what i quoted, but your source does not say any of what you are saying.

your source says: Satellite images show damage near vital equipment on sites in at least five countries https://archive.ph/QHNXW

[schappim]

> Iron Dome relied on these radars — all blind now.

Iron Dome’s primary fire-control radar is the Israeli EL/M-2084 Multi-Mission Radar, not the USA’s AN/FPS-132

[bijowo1676]

GCC radars are needed for early warning, not only fire control.

the evidence is Alert system may not even work for missiles, or give very short warning (seconds to 1 minute instead of the usual 10 minutes)

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-03-...

If we are speaking of interception/penetration, these are also solved by Iran using several strategies that Israel/CENTCOM did not expect:

  1. use of cluster munitions
  2. exhaustion of expensive interceptor inventory (exchanging $7000 shahed drone for $3-5 mln worth of PAC-3 interceptors)
  3. Use of penetration aids
  4. Changing trajectory at the terminal stage
  5. coordinating swarm attacks (let AD to intercept SRBMs, while the real damage is caused by abundant cheap Shaheds that fly too slow and low to be detected)

Sources: https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russia_likely_modified_irania...

https://www.csis.org/analysis/unpacking-irans-drone-campaign...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/23/iran-cluster-b...

[reissbaker]

Both you and the Guardian are confused (or perhaps the Guardian is just trying to ride the popular understanding of the "Iron Dome" as a super catch all missile defense system vs reality). The Iron Dome has nothing to do with shooting down ballistic missiles. The Iron Dome isn't designed to target ballistic missiles: it targets short-range rockets and artillery like the ones fired by Hamas and Hezbollah, and has been modified to also target slow-moving drones (although the Iron Beam is intended to be the main drone defense system in the future). The Iranian missiles are targeted by different systems: David's Sling and the Arrow 2 and 3.

The Iron Dome does not depend on the American radar system in Qatar that Iran hit. It would be crazy for it to do so when it only targets short range attacks. If someone is telling you that the "Iron Dome is blind" because an American radar in Qatar got hit by a missile, you should probably update the amount you trust that source negatively, since not only is that not true, but it doesn't even pass the sniff test to anyone who knows what the Iron Dome is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David%27s_Sling

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_3

[walletdrainer]

> The Iron Dome has nothing to do with shooting down ballistic missiles

This is not true, Tamir interceptors have been upgraded to target ballistic missiles. It is extremely visible when this happens, as the interceptors fly a very different path than usually.

[bijowo1676]

you are arguing semantics, both me and Guardian using the term "iron dome" as a collective of all air defense systems in Israel (not that one system built to counter cheap rockets), because all these systems are integrated into one military network, including the GCC/CENTCOM radars that were destroyed.

if you replace "iron dome" with "air defense network" everything else would still be true

[reissbaker]

The problem is you do not understand how these systems work and are making claims that don't pass the sniff test to anyone who does know how these work. For example, you claim multiple times that Shahed drones have somehow exacerbated these Iron Dome missile interceptor issues, and now claim you're not talking about the literal Iron Dome — you're talking about who knows what (you don't specify any actual, concrete system and instead use a metaphorical understanding from the popular press). The problem is: actually, the literal, real Iron Dome does target Shaheds! So if it's the radar system that was the problem and caused the metaphorical Iron Dome to be "blind" — why did drones matter, if those are targeted by the literal Iron Dome that doesn't use that radar? Are you meaning to talk about David's Sling, which targets missiles and drones? But David's Sling is a medium range system that doesn't use the American radar in Qatar either! Arrow 3? Guess what — it has nothing to do with Shaheds, and has nothing to do with the American radar system either — it uses an IAI radar system.

The Iranian hit on the American radar in Qatar hasn't left the "Iron Dome" blind, figuratively or literally, and your proposed mechanisms of actions don't make sense.

[bijowo1676]

you have constructed a strawman argument and are arguing with it, mostly semantics and splitting hairs.

Perhaps a problem here is that we are mixing up two theatres: Israel and GCC.

Iron dome exists in Israel, but the radars and air defense network was degraded in GCC, it is these patriots there that are having interceptor issues and shahed drone issues.

Israel is not being bombed by shaheds, it is being bombed by ballistic missiles that they are having problems intercepting and alerting population in advance.

you can check with the sourc elinks I provided that confirm that the radars in GCC were part of the early warning system for israel, and hitting radars in Qatar has impacted directly AD network in israel (reduced alert time significantly)

[bigbugbag]

not sure you are aware that you pass for the ignorant who's stuck in denial of reality.

you are arguing against official annoucements from the IDF explaning why the civilian alert system now only gives short notice and will do so from now on, and you argue on the basis of fallacious rhetoric.

[XorNot]

"I am morally correct therefore I need not be factually correct".

Stop doing this: it completely undermines the political argument because it makes it clear you are as uninterested in reality as the current administration.

It's rich to declare "they're lying" while happily being disinterested in the truth or clear communication.

Iron Dome is a specific interceptor system, and you can trivially look up what it is on Wikipedia.

[walletdrainer]

Iron Dome being unable to intercept ballistic missiles is factually incorrect as of at least March 2026.

[positron26]

Bro just throw out your privileges or pick some solid ground instead of dragging us all into the mud.

[trhway]

>Israel/CENTCOM did not expect

that after 4 years of Ukraine war where those tactics have been widely used, in some cases by both sides, and where Russia has even been using the same Iranian drones

[gmerc]

Well, October 7 clearly was unexpected too, so these guys unexpect a lot

[testbjjl]

There is considerable evidence that it was not unexpected.

[cthalupa]

I believe that was the point being made.

[verdverm]

It might be more of a selective listening issue

[thisislife2]

I've read that NATO radars in Turkey were equally important to provide early warning to Israel. It's not far-fetched to assume that US radars in the middle-east did too. US THAAD in Israel would definitely be networked into those.

[awesome_dude]

I think that there is a problem here - you're talking about the firing of the defense system at targets, whereas knowing that that radar needs to be readied because missiles have been detected is what the other radar system provided.

[testbjjl]

Remind me in two weeks?

[ignoramous]

> Government obviously pretty silent on all these failures and media doesn't want to dig and ask hard questions

Some analysts are sure drumming up the severity [0]. In the fog of war, it is hard to tell what's exaggerated and what's not. The proposal by the current US Admin to increase defence spending by 40% to $1.5t is not a welcome sign for those opposed to heavy spending, for any number of reasons.

[0] https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-last-molecule... / https://archive.vn/5H0L5

[grafmax]

> In the fog of war, it is hard to tell what's exaggerated and what's not.

Honestly it's more than that. Propaganda and lies put out by ALL actors in this conflict. If you want to understand what's going on I think you have the expose yourself to as many competing sources as you can find. And still you're going to end up with a very shoddy picture. The term for this is epistemic collapse.

[awesome_dude]

This.

One of the things I have disliked about the Iranian conflict is that their propaganda/messaging has been, by quite a margin, more reliable than what the US/Israel have been putting out.

I like to think that I live in a free/liberal democratic portion of the world, but seeing the "other side" being more honest really puts a dent in things.

[oa335]

> One of the things I have disliked about the Iranian conflict is that their propaganda/messaging has been, by quite a margin, more reliable than what the US/Israel have been putting out.

Can you please expand on this with some examples?

[awesome_dude]

The most recent example - I have been seeing reels/tik toks fronted by young women, that push Iranian talking points, they were saying that Trump's announcements on the conflict were timed to manipulate markets, and to "watch tomorrow"

They were referring to a Sunday before the Markets opened, and right on cue President Trump started making announcements that had a massive effect on market movements

Previously the USA government were downplaying (then retaliatory) Iranian drone attacks on bases in the middle east, claiming zero damage, and laughing at the attackers, the Iranians provided footage that showed real damage, and the US military released statement(s) that agreed with the Iranian claims.

Now, I'm not going to pretend that the Iranian regime is anything but a steaming pile of ew, but the lesson we were supposed to learn from the Vietnam war, and the Iraq war (II), was that hearts and minds are the key to "winning", and that's built on trust, which is built on transparency and honesty.

edit: and the Afghanistan invasion

[lejalv]

not only that, one big fact is that the Trump administration attacked twice Iran during negotiations. That sort of backstabbing gives you a sense of what their word is worth.

[technion]

The easy example is that meta was full of influencers confirming the war was over, with the us having won, at a time Iran's own statements declared otherwise. That was a while back.

[brobdingnagians]

The open letter to Americans from Iran:

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/full-text-of-...

Vs Trump's speech:

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-transcript-address-i...

[ndsipa_pomu]

One of those appears to be written by a sensible adult and the other one by a boastful teenager.

[s3r3nity]

>One of the things I have disliked about the Iranian conflict is that their propaganda/messaging has been, by quite a margin, more reliable than what the US/Israel have been putting out.

Kek. Tell me you live in a bubble without telling me you live in a bubble.

"Both are doing propaganda, but one side's propaganda is totally less propaganda" gave me a good laugh today, thank you

[roenxi]

The multiple sources don't know either, the reason the picture is shoddy is it is necessarily composed of the primary information that is coming from ... people with the strongest incentive to lie. There aren't a lot of independent ways to assess the situation. And of course that is part of the fog of war - even the militairy struggles to put together a picture of what is going on. I'd imagine that defining where the front-line is presents a complex and uncertain exercise for the commanders involved.

The only thing I think can be said reliably is that this has been going on for weeks, the Strait seems to be more closed than open, Trump is clearly out of his depth and the US is sending more units to the area. All of those point to a serious problem for the US military.

[XorNot]

No the problem is that operational security necessarily biases what you see.

Drones, unlike many other systems produce a lot of kill footage and due to the specific users a lot of that is getting uploaded right now.

Successful sorties get uploaded, unsuccessful ones do not (if only because it's boring media).

No other system does this: artillery and missiles don't, manned systems worry about opsec, etc.

[3abiton]

Iran was known to have such capabilities, it's baffling the US wasn't more prepared in its gulf bases.

[lonelyasacloud]

> it's baffling the US wasn't more prepared in its gulf bases.

Probably want to drop the assumptions about it having anything much to do with US interests. Better to start looking at who has had the alliance that contained them damaged and their oil sanctions lifted.

[mgfist]

If only there was a 4 year long war where thousands of drones are flown every day both on offense and defense that we could have learned from ..

[mayama]

Problem is that there was too much propaganda in that war, that parsing propaganda is too difficult even for military watchers, let alone general public. Only when american weapons are being destroyed that, US MIC is willing to acknowledge that may be million+ usd missiles are not solution to cheap drones.

[phs318u]

Problem is also that your “Secretary of War” has fired two dozen of your most experienced military leaders since coming into office.

When the history of the American demise as a global superpower gets written, this war and the government behind it, will merit a beefy chapter.

https://www.bostonpoliticalreview.org/post/pete-hegseth-fire...

[sheeshkebab]

These traitors will eventually be all prosecuted. They are all traitors with putin connections, every one of them.

[root_axis]

There will be no prosecutions. Even if there's a situation where Dems regain power, they don't have the political capital or efficacy to prosecute.

[bijowo1676]

nobody will prosecute them, unless there is regime change in the USA

[deaux]

Haha, by whom? There are zero higher-ups who are actually getting institutional backing and are in favor of this.

Look at how Mamdani didn't even get any backing. Quite the opposite, he was obstructed. And he's 100x more palatable to them than the idea of prosecuting the traitors.

[mgfist]

The US and Ukraine have a direct relationship. They don't need to parse anything. Have people on the ground to watch how they conduct war. And bring people to the US to teach their learnings.

It's not that hard, the US just didn't want to do it for whatever dumb reason.

[ohhman11]

This is a completely unrelated problem, the US MIC is heavily incentivized to invent new problems.

[ericd]

Fact check on this brand new account?

[fsckboy]

I read the source he listed and it doesn't say any of that

[ericd]

Ah thanks, I think that was added after I commented.

[refulgentis]

This is the second time in 2 weeks I’ve seen a comment like this on HN. 37 years old. Been on here 16 years. Incredibly odd to me. Just announce “can someone else tell me if this is true?”

[ericd]

That’s what I was doing, because I don’t think assertions like “CENTCOM is blind” should just sit out there without evidence.

[brobdingnagians]

I watched an interview with a retired British military guy who said that the radar destruction does complicate things, but the US still has the other AWACs, so there is still early warning and visibility, just complicates things and reduced range/more risk.

[peebee67]

The E3 fleet is aging and difficult to keep airworthy. Of the 32 or so planes the US has, it sounds as though they struggle to keep the operational number above 16, and moving more to the gulf means they have to pull them from other theaters. In short, they simply don't have enough to provide coverage of all the areas they want them.

This was completely foreseeable and is a situation that appears to have arisen entirely due to vest interests stifling procurement of a suitable replacement in order to spruik up business for their own competing, but unfinished offering. Prior to the war in Iran, total cancellation of the procurement of E7's had been announced.

https://theaviationist.com/2026/04/01/e-3-awacs-loss-saudi-a...

[TrnsltLife]

It seems like demoralization propaganda.

[refulgentis]

Then go get some! It adds nothing but spam when you to take time from your busy day to tell us what to do

[ericd]

Usually it’s on the person posting assertions to justify them, and looks like they’ve edited in a NYT link since then.

[serf]

that's true about assertions, but blindly saying "Fact check!" is still an attempt to offload a wished-for effort onto other people while simultaneously sowing seeds of discernment and distrust into the topic.

What happens when someone yells "Fact check!" at absolutely true things constantly? It erodes confidence. That's why "Person yelling fact check" isn't a typical or generalized role in normal discourse.

Yes, it's good to correct the incorrect. How does one do that typically? A rebuttal.

A supposed 'deferment to experts' on the internet is worth next to nothing, just a way to paint yourself a bit more altruistically while producing FUD.

[squeaky-clean]

And it's worse than spam when someone is posting incorrect things and people are downvoting people questioning it. As another user has already posted, the Iron Dome does not use the same radar they are talking about and is not "blind"

[sethev]

IMHO, people making claims should provide the evidence for them. One link is behind a paywall and the other clearly states that it is making informed speculations.

I could make all sorts of claims on the spot here. It doesn't create a duty for people reading this thread to go investigate them.

[refulgentis]

You're so close, just one more step, and it's easy, just have to step away from keeping it hypothetical.

<SPOILER> Then it certainly does not create a duty for people to go investigate, when the only difference is "someone replied telling someone to fact check" </SPOILER>

[sethev]

You're the one in this thread claiming people are responsible for "going and finding the evidence" of other people's unsourced claims. You could have just not replied since you didn't have something to contribute.

[refulgentis]

None of the words you have in quotes are in this thread. :/ Not a single one. Nor did I advance this position.

I'd wait for your apology, but I'm old enough to know I won't get one.

[ericd]

Relax, I was mostly asking whether someone else who already knew about this stuff could comment on its veracity. There’s obviously no obligation.

[refulgentis]

Right (c.f. the thing I am replying to)

[Ms-J]

If you spend a moment to verify the info that is the fact check.

No one can do the thinking for you.

[ericd]

Did a quick search, didn’t see confirmation that they’re blind/that all radars had been knocked out. Was asking whether others who know more about this topic than me would confirm.

[Ms-J]

You did a reasonable check in my opinion. Perhaps if you had said that you already did search I wouldn't have written the last part.

Also if I had an answer to your question I would say it. Hope you are able to find the answer.

[nujabe]

Are you asking someone to fact check publicly available information for you ? Even NYT reported this

[ericd]

Traveling with kids on spring break, I don’t have time to read all war related news, and it tends to set off my propaganda account alarm when someone registers a new account to drop a bunch of assertions on such a politically divisive topic. So I was asking whether someone could confirm things like “The whole CENTCOM is blind basically, as well as Iron Dome which relied on these radars - all blind now, in addition to long-range early nuke detection to protect CONUS is also blind.”

There’s a good reason new accounts are colored green.

[the__alchemist]

New account that only has politics-adjacent posts; worth being skeptical.

[amirhirsch]

Gp was referring to AN/TPY2 which is the THAAD radar.

Iron dome has nothing to do with that systems.

[dzonga]

a war end up being a war about information.

hence the first department that goes into full throttle mode in any war - is the department of propaganda | press corps (as modernly called).

so we gonna see lies on both sides - Iranians | US / Israel. with the truth in between.

[HarHarVeryFunny]

No problem - Trump is asking for an FY 2027 1.5 TRILLION dollar military budget, and just said that Medicare and Medicare may need to be cut to afford it.

[nashashmi]

A reminder that these losses will mean we all each lose something. And Israel gains a whole lot more.

What’s the next country we move to?

[pstuart]

Cuba.

In a "rational" world the quagmire of Iran would make such a move unlikely, but with this administration the prospect of an "easy win" could have them just go for it.

After all, nobody's stopping them. The Constitution only remains so that the 2A fanatics can LARP at being patriots.

[mukmuk]

Our country is currently enforcing a blockade that is murdering children in Cuba. It is all so sickening.

[4gotunameagain]

As well as aiding and abetting Israel actively murder children, starve them, and sequester the land of Palestine and Lebanon.

So much for the moral high ground.

[PearlRiver]

If the US is allowed to annex Cuba the PRC has a right to take back Taiwan.

[zorobo]

Taiwan people have not been risking their lives trying to escape to join PRC.

[FrustratedMonky]

Iran fired at 17. Do we know how many radars are actually offline? I thought it was only 2.

So maybe not blind? but also, hard to verify.

[quantum_state]

These very expensive toys are the reasons of the to be $1.5 trillion DoW budget. It’s insane and not sustainable.

[laughing_man]

$1.5 trillion is the budget the Pentagon is requesting for next year. It's highly unlikely Congress will give them that much money.

[positron26]

> Rare Earth Minerals... ...unable to repair the damage any time soon (probably for decades)

Look bro, if we can make SR-71s out of pizza ovens, I'm pretty sure somewhere in the CIA can scrounge up a few ounces of gadoluminium. Tankie dreams are placation for those who wait for somebody else to make the birdseed fall from the sky.

[outside2344]

And running out of Patriots

[trhway]

Looks like Iran is doing what i suggested Ukraine should have done to Russia https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42529638

[Rotdhizon]

Absolutely. A big part of the western Ukrainian defense was solely to drain the Russian military apparatus and drain they have. It will take Russia decades to rebuild their fighting force. Now Russia and China are doing it right back to us and the intelligence gained from this conflict is extremely valuable. Come to find out the US has been sitting on ego in its military more than actual might. The previously untouchable machines of war in the sky are now very much touchable. All that's left is for them to sink a battle ship. If Iran can shoot them down, you can bet China can inflict exponentially more harm. Drain our intercept missiles, destroy radars, corrode relationships, etc. At this point, China has the world on a silver platter if they want it.

[freefrog1234aa]

Russia has rebuilt their military, which was neglected at the beginning of the war. The Russian and Ukrainian armies have adopted to drone warfare, which the rest of the world lags behind.

[Rotdhizon]

They haven't rebuilt the manpower. They've lost no less than a few hundred thousand fighting age men over the course of the war. It will take them 20-30 years minimum just for those births to occur and those newborns to make it to military age.

[oblio]

In case you haven't been following Ukraine, that's what it's doing. It has multiple cheap long range drones (FP-1, FP-2, etc) plus more expensive ones (FP-5), and it's making them in the millions a year, I think.

They just took out 40% of Russian oil export capacity.

[trhway]

no, the million or two is small battlefield drones, mostly quadcopters carrying an RPG warhead or similarly sized payload. The long range drones - and they carry only relatively small, like 20-50kg payloads - are well under 100 thousands. FP-5 was declared 1 per day half a year ago. By now i think we've seen may be 10-20 such missiles used - they use real turbo jet engine, there isn't much of them available, and they are expensive.

>They just took out 40% of Russian oil export capacity.

Yes, Ust-Luga and Primorsk. Very successful hits. Painful for Putin. Yet it isn't a knock-down. Russia is like a big drunk guy in a street fight - just delivering painful blows to him doesn't help, you have to deliver a knock-out blow, and unfortunately Ukraine still seems far from it.

[oblio]

There will be no knockout punch here, instead it will be death by exhaustion.

North Vietnam didn't die of exhaustion, nor did Afghanistan (2x), Iraq.

For reference, it's likely Ukraine is making more medium cheap drones per year than Iran, the current boogeyman.

This war will end the same way, probably around 2030.

[XorNot]

Countries aren't human. You don't deliver a "knock out punch".

WW2 wasn't ended by capturing Berlin, it was ended because the German military was destroyed or surrendered as they were forced back towards Berlin.

By the time it fell, there wasn't an effective German military left.

[mgfist]

That works for Iran because US air-defense is still comprised mainly of advanced and expensive systems (like the Patriot). It doesn't work as well in Ukraine or Russia because both have figured out drone interceptors quite well. Both countries do the type of attack drone clustering you suggest. I read somewhere that a strike like from Russia that might include 60-70 drones + ballistic missiles in the hopes that one or 2 get through.

[trhway]

you miss that i was talking about 650km/h "drones" (because, yes, it was already 3rd year of war, and 200km/h drone like Shahed became much easier target - this is why Russia has started to also use the 600km/h modification of Shahed with RC jet engine). There is related discussion under that comment addressing your point about interception.

>Both countries do the type of attack drone clustering you suggest

Ukraine still isn't completely there. They do attack Russia with up to 200 drones/day. They seem to never cluster more than a few, and the drones they are using are comparably small - 50kg warhead - and slow, 100+ km/h, almost always less than 200km/h. So they are easy to intercept/shoot down, almost never penetrate Moscow air defense, and do noticeable damage only when hitting flammable targets like oil/gas industry related.

[gessha]

Running out of patriots as well.

[juliusceasar]

This is good news. Actually not for those whom chose to start the 2nd Epstein war.

I really hope that Israeli and Iranian governments both go to hell. May both destroy each other.

[iwontberude]

For the United States, the government doesn't have the capability to extricate Israel from its political system, but the feds can create blowback for Israel which makes them less capable to influence the US in the future while achieving other strategic aims in the region. US war planners know plenty about blow back and I think this is being done on purpose. I am terrified for innocent Israelis, Iranians and Gulf state residents that have been led into this. Most of the states and peoples in the Middle East who have been destroyed used to be allies with the US. That isn't on accident.

[readitalready]

Government could sanction Israel like they did to Iran.

[iwontberude]

Nope, that would take congressional approval and congressional leaders are all bought by the people that paid for the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996. At this point only DoD and CIA can make it happen, thus why I mention any of this.