[SloppyDrive]

The biggest positive I have seen is not so much in the new tools, but in new ways to convince the higher ups to do sensible things.

We always find that small teams of locals can do much much more than a team with an unlimited number of low cost "developers". Not just because the competence of low cost devs is poor, but also the structure of how you work changes for the worse with a bigger team, for the worse with a distributed team, and for the worse with a skill-diverse team.

Thats before you get into the cultural flaws of favored destinations like India.

So we have been able to argue things like add one local + ai is better than about 20-100 Indians, depending on role and business structure needed to manage low-competence low-trust "developers". So we are planning to completely on-shore in the near future.

The bean counters are happy, and the quality of the work is improving.

[trenchgun]

Yes this + also APIs! Due to LLMs needing APIs suddenly things that were strictly behind GUI can easily opened up for programmatic use. Double edged sword, due to infosec etc concerns, but sure is nice for personal productivity automation.

[sdevonoes]

> So we have been able to argue things like add one local + ai is better than about 20-100 Indians

And you just say this like it’s nothing. Lack of respect to tons of Indian people who work in IT, of which I have had the pleasure to work with.

[SloppyDrive]

I am yet to see quality work come out of India.

I do not believe I have even seen "good value" output.

What is there to respect?

[dyauspitr]

But 3 Indians + AI means they don’t need any of you at all. This won’t go well in the long run.

[SloppyDrive]

Perhaps in the long run there will be very few developers globally; but in the short term, I see less and less use for the whole idea of low-cost outsourcing.

The historical value of a low cost region is get crap work for few dollars. "Just barely good enough". AI can do this by itself.

If you add AI to poor work, you get more extremely shit work for less dollars. If you add AI to a skilled worker you get a large volume of OK to poor work.

Basically my suspicion is as the tools improve they make low skill regions obsolete first.

[dyauspitr]

You pay just enough for slop, you get slop. There are plenty of very good developers in India who still cost a tenth of your salary. I think I know which choice the corporations are going to go with.

[SloppyDrive]

I can only speak to what I see in my social circle; but the general conclusion is the value is not there currently, and the AI tools theoretically make the payoff decline relative to on-shoring.

Either these tools dont do much, and its business as usual with the cycle of attempts to offshore failing.

Or the tools produce massive quantities of mediocre work, the low-cost developer is now obsolete. Markets that relied on quantity to sustain the industry evaporate. The problems hiring overseas are only amplified by this, leading to increased overhead finding the skilled developers. Other issues such as timezones, large team coordination, political risks, and cultural mismatch remain, and smother a shrinking sector.

Or the tools work very well; and if they produce better quality than you can then you are obsolete. Development generally as a concept is unrecognizable.

[brabel]

You are confusing low cost with low competence. Some developers in India and Brazil cost a fourth of an American one but may be just as competent. Yes, the average is lower because of the lower barrier to entry and differences in cultural practices, but you really should separate cost and competency. You can hire some grifter who is quite expensive compared to a super developer from India just because they live in California.

[SloppyDrive]

Ive been doing this for a while, and seen many people try; the success ratio is so low that I consider it a fools errand.

There are many reasons why; but simply there is no surplus of super developers anywhere; you might find one anywhere, but they will not stay low cost for very long... And if you try to structure your business to find any number of employees overseas you quickly become overwhelmed by the averages and cultural practices of an area.

I fully believe its possible to find a single competent Brazilian or Indian for cheaper than in the west, but I dont think its possible to structure a company in a way that you can hire 20.