[SloppyDrive]

Perhaps in the long run there will be very few developers globally; but in the short term, I see less and less use for the whole idea of low-cost outsourcing.

The historical value of a low cost region is get crap work for few dollars. "Just barely good enough". AI can do this by itself.

If you add AI to poor work, you get more extremely shit work for less dollars. If you add AI to a skilled worker you get a large volume of OK to poor work.

Basically my suspicion is as the tools improve they make low skill regions obsolete first.

[dyauspitr]

You pay just enough for slop, you get slop. There are plenty of very good developers in India who still cost a tenth of your salary. I think I know which choice the corporations are going to go with.

[SloppyDrive]

I can only speak to what I see in my social circle; but the general conclusion is the value is not there currently, and the AI tools theoretically make the payoff decline relative to on-shoring.

Either these tools dont do much, and its business as usual with the cycle of attempts to offshore failing.

Or the tools produce massive quantities of mediocre work, the low-cost developer is now obsolete. Markets that relied on quantity to sustain the industry evaporate. The problems hiring overseas are only amplified by this, leading to increased overhead finding the skilled developers. Other issues such as timezones, large team coordination, political risks, and cultural mismatch remain, and smother a shrinking sector.

Or the tools work very well; and if they produce better quality than you can then you are obsolete. Development generally as a concept is unrecognizable.