[Insanity]

Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/50 decision between "ceasfire yes / no". People vote with their gut.

[a_ba]

Just because it's a binary choice doesn't make it a 50/50 chance. Flipping a fair coin (50/50) is different from flipping a weighted coin (say 80/20) even though the possible outcomes are the same.

[Insanity]

No, but I'm just saying, people vote based on feels.

[croes]

Insiders don‘t and you’re ignoring the reasons why insider trading is suspected.

It’s not because they bet, because how and when they bet

[gzread]

Yes, and they consistently lose money to insiders who vote based on actual knowledge.

[munk-a]

I would be too - if we didn't have prior evidence of massive insider trading on prediction markets.

[nostromo]

Insider trading makes prediction markets more accurate, not less.

[munk-a]

It also warps reality to adhere to the prediction markets. There was a famous rash of objects being thrown onto WNBA courts recently that was spurred on by the potential for financial gain.

[mothballed]

A few major actors in predictions markets

(1) Recreational or addicted gamblers

(2) Hedging your investments or exposure to an event by betting on it as insurance

(3) Insiders

(4) Information arbitrage (researchers, etc)

Three (3) and Four (4) are probably the most important for conveying useful information in pricing. I see it as a good, not bad thing, they are involved.

[CaptainNegative]

There could also be some degree of "(5) bandwagon effect" players, who pump money into an outcome specifically to get people talking about its possibility, thereby increasing its probability of coming into fruition.

[Insanity]

mh. Guess my view of betting is too naive. I wouldn't have expected anything beyond (1).

With my usual addictive behaviour, I think it's prob best I stay away from that though.. :)

[cwillu]

(1) provides an incentive for the rest to participate.

[freejazz]

Can anyone point to any instance of anyone benefitting from the information conveyed in these prediction markets?

[standardUser]

There's an entire academic field called statistics you seem to be forgetting all about.