[ordinaryradical]

> Robin Hanson, the economist who’s commonly known as the godfather of modern prediction markets, thinks that using inside information to place bets like this is actually necessary for these markets to work—making “insider trading” a feature, not a bug.

> “The point of these markets is to get information, so the only reason you should ever be trading on them is if you think you have some information,” said Hanson, a professor of economics at George Mason University whose academic work inspired the founders of prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. “People with more information should trade more and get more money because that's how they get paid for the information they contribute.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciapark/2026/01/09/why-predi...

Seems like you should read more about these markets.

[hrimfaxi]

How is it at all a prediction if someone has insider knowledge? That's not a prediction that is knowing the facts. If I'm Trump and decide to capture Maduro tomorrow and then I bet on that happening, what did I predict? If someone close to me who knows my plans bets on it, what did they predict? That I will follow through on my word?

[kasey_junk]

You externalized the answer to the question. That’s _the point_ of prediction markets.

What you are describing is governmental corruption and that should be handled via corruption laws not insider trading laws.