[hrimfaxi]

How is it at all a prediction if someone has insider knowledge? That's not a prediction that is knowing the facts. If I'm Trump and decide to capture Maduro tomorrow and then I bet on that happening, what did I predict? If someone close to me who knows my plans bets on it, what did they predict? That I will follow through on my word?

[kasey_junk]

You externalized the answer to the question. That’s _the point_ of prediction markets.

What you are describing is governmental corruption and that should be handled via corruption laws not insider trading laws.