[scoofy]

It is difficult to instigate regime change for democratically elected governments.

Iran has an unelected supreme leader.

Israel has a large portion of its population completely disenfranchised.

The US has a generally democratically elected government.

If one of these governments is going to fall during military instabilities, it would most likely be Iran. The US will have significant regime change in November if polling holds.

[shykes]

> Israel has a large portion of its population completely disenfranchised.

Care to elaborate? As far as I know, this is false. All Israeli citizens 18 or older can vote; there are no voting restrictions based on race, religion, gender or property; prisoners can vote (unlike in many US states for example); permanent residents who are not citizens cannot vote in national elections but may vote in municipal elections (not the case in the US). National turnout ranges between 65% and 75%.

Minorities are well represented: Arab and Druze citizens vote and have representation in the Knesset.

I struggle to find any dimension in which your statement is correct.

[scoofy]

Very obviously, I’m referring to the Palestinians in the “Palestinian Territories” being de facto governed by Israel and are not allowed to vote in Israeli elections.

[shykes]

There is nothing obvious about that statement. In fact it's catastrophically wrong.

Palestinians in Gaza have been governed by Hamas since 2006. Before that, they had been governed by the Palestinian Authority (Fatah) since 1994.

Palestinians in Judea and Samaria ("West bank") have been governed by the Palestinian Authority continuously since 1994, with the exception of Area C.

Palestinians who live there are NOT "de facto governed" by Israel. They pay taxes to the Palestinian Authority; receive birth certificates, IDs, business licenses and social security payments from the P.A.; Go to schools, hospitals, courts, police stations and jails run by the P.A. And most importantly, they vote in elections run by the P.A. To say that they are "de facto governed" by Israel is ridiculous, and shows a lack of basic understanding of Israel and Palestine, and the conflict between them.

[mtsolitary]

"The exception of Area C" is doing a lot of work in this argument. That's 61% of the territory of the West Bank ("Judea and Samaria") (those scare quotes also doing a lot of work).

To counter your list of things that the PA does de facto control, I will add: who controls the criminal court system? The checkpoints which lead to the outside world? The airspace? The ability to import and export goods? The roads? The territorial contiguity of Areas A and B? The decisions on building new settlements?

Aside from the municipal things you mentioned, which in most places in the world are controlled by subnational entities, Israel is in de facto control of the lives and futures of all 15 million people "from the river to the sea", roughly half of them Jews and half of them Arabs, while only one of those groups has what anyone in the West could consider to be a normal existence.

[shykes]

> "The exception of Area C" is doing a lot of work in this argument. That's 61% of the territory of the West Bank

Area C is less than 10% of the Palestinian population in the West Bank, 6% of Palestinian population if you count Gaza. Interesting that you chose to focus on territory! Last I checked, square kilometers do not vote, people do.

In any case, you are right that Area C is more complicated, since it is controlled by Israel and there are Palestinians who live there.

However, Palestinians living in area C can also vote in Palestinian elections. So although it is true that they live in a territory governed by Israel (unlike the other 94% of Palestinians), it remains false that they are a "large part of the Israeli population that is disenfranchised" (the original statement).

> ("Judea and Samaria") (those scare quotes also doing a lot of work).

Obviously the choice of name for this region reflects a political preference. But that works both ways. I prefer to call it Judea and Samaria because that's what it was called until 1948, when Jordan invaded and annexed it. "West bank" is a relic of Jordanian occupation, chosen by King Abdullah to absorb the region into his kingdom, not just politically but semantically. Jordan hasn't controlled the region in 60 years - longer than the occupation itself. It seems reasonable to stop calling it by its colonial Jordan name.

You seem to take particular issue with my use of the term "Judea and Samaria". That is also a political preference. Do you care to explain it the same way I explained mine?

> To counter your list of things that the PA does de facto control, I will add: who controls the criminal court system?

In areas A and B, the Palestinian Authority.

> The checkpoints which lead to the outside world?

On the Israeli side: Israel. On the Jordanian side: Jordan.

> The airspace?

Israel

> The ability to import and export goods?

The Palestinian Authority, but subject to stringent security control by Israel.

> The roads?

In Areas A and B: the Palestinian Authority.

> The territorial contiguity of Areas A and B?

That was jointly defined by the bilateral agreement at Oslo. So, both sides agreed on that.

> The decisions on building new settlements?

In area C: Israel.

In areas A and B: there are no settlements (Jews are not allowed to live there).

> Israel is in de facto control of the lives and futures of all 15 million people "from the river to the sea"

We're straying from the original topic of disenfranchisement... I will just say that, in my opinion, your view is simplistic and manichean. The closest we ever got to a resolution of the conflict, in 1994, was with a bilateral agreement. Neither side is fully in control of the outcome. Denying that Palestinians, too, have responsibilities and agency, is the surest way to perpetuate this conflict.

[revenant718]

>> Israel is in de facto control of the lives and futures of all 15 million people "from the river to the sea"

> We're straying from the original topic of disenfranchisement

What a laughable statement. This is entirely the point of the disenfranchisement claim.

[scoofy]

I shouldn’t even have to argue here. Access to the West Bank is controlled by Israel. That is de facto governance.

At best the Palestinian Territories have “quasi-governmental control.” I’m saying this as someone who isn’t particularly pro-Palestine. Pretending that Israel isn’t de facto the government of the Palestinian Territories is an unserious position.

By de facto I mean explicitly not de jure.

[shykes]

> I shouldn’t even have to argue here

If you don't like to argue, may I suggest not making controversial claims on controversial topics, in a place that encourages constructive debate?

> Access to the West Bank is controlled by Israel.

That is mostly true. On the border with Jordan it is jointly controlled by Jordan and Israel (like most international borders).

> Pretending that Israel isn’t de facto the government of the Palestinian Territories is an unserious position

I already explained in great detail the specific ways in which the Palestinian Territories are, in fact, governed by the Palestinian Authority. Taxation, elections, justice, police, education, healthcare, roads, sewers, business regulation, population register...

So far your counter-argument is that Israel controls the border... and therefore Palestinians should vote in Israeli elections? Should they also vote in Palestinian ejections? Or should the P.A. simply stop to exist? What point are you even making exactly?

Calling me "unserious" doesn't make you automatically "serious", or right.

[scoofy]

You are confusing de facto control and de jure control. That’s why I’m arguing the position is unserious. I don’t know anything about you personally.

You’re making my point anyway, by conceding that the West Bank is effectively governed without representation in the governments controlling them.

[squibonpig]

The person you're responding to said they were unable to vote in Israeli elections. You said "no, they're able to, uhh, not vote in the case of those under Hamas and they're able to vote in elections held by the Palestinian authority in the case of those in the west bank." I don't know a ton about this, but I don't believe the Palestinian authority elections are the same as the Israeli elections. As I understand it, the right to vote is gated behind a citizenship process that is restrictive enough to generally prevent Palestinians from obtaining it.

[shykes]

> The person you're responding to said they were unable to vote in Israeli elections.

They said Palestinians are "a large portion of the Israeli population [that] is disenfranchised". That is a wrong statement. Palestinians are not part of the Israeli population and there is no expectation (on either side) that they would participate in Israeli elections. That issue has been largely settled by the Oslo framework in 1994.

> As I understand it, the right to vote is gated behind a citizenship process that is restrictive enough to generally prevent Palestinians from obtaining it.

I'm not sure which elections you mean.

- Israeli elections are for Israeli citizens. The 20% of Israelis who are Arab (sometimes loosely referred to as "Palestinians" as a loose synonym for "Arab living in former mandatory Palestine") can participate normally

- Palestinians in the West Bank vote in Palestinian elections. ' not aware of any citizenship-related restrictions there. Possible issues might be: logistics of getting to polls because of Israeli checkpoints; or simply the absence of elections (PA hasn't held a national election since 2006, although there are municipal elections).

- Specifically in East Jerusalem, on which Israeli claims sovereignty, Palestinians are classified as permanent residents of Israel. They may apply fot Israeli citizenship but that's probably a difficult process. As permanent residents they can vote in Israeli municipal elections, and as Palestinians they can vote in Palestinian national elections. But not being Israeli citizens they cannot vote in Israeli national elections. Perhaps that is what you're referring to?

[pyrale]

> That issue has been largely settled by the Oslo framework in 1994.

A process that's alive and well, just like Yitzhak Rabin.

[mvdtnz]

This is like saying Australians are disenfranchised because they can't vote in New Zealand elections. They're not governed by Israel in any meaningful way.

[scoofy]

It would be like if Native American tribes could not vote in American elections, but the federal government still controlled the ability for those nations to access the external world.

[hirako2000]

Correction: It is like saying Australians can't vote in general elections after being pushed out of 75% of the territory, except a small percentage who are tolerated in the major land since they won't make a difference.

The ostracized Aussies then can vote for their own leaders but will be blamed if they vote for the wrong ones and embargoed, regularly shot and even bombed from time to time to remind them who the place belongs to.

[datsci_est_2015]

Counterpoint, Palestinians (many of whom were not alive in 2006, as they are children) are not exactly drenched in sovereignty at the moment.

[shykes]

I agree. But it is not Israel who is disenfranchising them - it is the Palestinian Authority (in West Bank) and Hamas (in Gaza).

[tovej]

Oh yikes, that is either the most ignorant or the least honest argument I've seen anyone make on this topic.

Shame on you.

[iw2rmb]

Nakba.

[bbshfishe]

Wow can you stop spreading misinformation.

[danny_codes]

Palestinians living in the Palestinian Territories are not Israeli citizens and cannot vote. I would say the Palestinian Territories are occupied, not part of Israel (though Bibi definitely has a sizable camp in his government that would love to make it so).

Do we expect occupied peoples to have a vote? sort of depends how you define democracy. Under an American interpretation (no taxation without representation, 1 person 1 vote) there’s a good argument that you should count occupied peoples.

It’s never so simple is it

[shykes]

> Under an American interpretation (no taxation without representation, 1 person 1 vote) there’s a good argument that you should count occupied peoples.

Palestinians are not taxed by Israel. They are taxed by the Palestinian Authority, and participate in Palestinian elections. So they do have representation - just not in Israel.

[scoofy]

If we are talking about Democracy—which is where I started this—then yes. If occupied peoples don’t have representation in the government occupying them, yes, that’s very obviously less democratic than if they did. Quite literally by definition. This shouldn’t be controversial.

[bbshfishe]

Prior to October 7th. Gaza was not occupied. Israel left in 2005.

Stop spreading misinformation.

[skywhopper]

Yes, but how many adults in land controlled by Israel are Israeli citizens?

[robin_reala]

The US is at “flawed democracy” in the Economist Democracy Index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index

[edgyquant]

The US is a republic with some democratic institutions, but the economists index isn’t some platonic indicator that gets to define who’s a good government and who isn’t. Several of its higher ranking countries have outright banned extremely popular political parties in recent years.

[tovej]

Care to tell us what the politics of those parties were?

Because a functioning democracy would ban a nazi party.

[nebula8804]

So is France.

[seszett]

And both have a similarly executive-centric form of government where the president and the majority party hold a disproportionate amount of power. Although the US is even worse than France on this regard as far as I know.

I think it makes sense that both are categorised as flawed.

[groundzeros2015]

democracy is a lower form of government in the ancient world

[Andrex]

I wonder who those critics were and what they were motivated by. (Rhetorical)

[groundzeros2015]

If you want to talk about rhetoric look at the idea of a “democracy index” - a score suggesting a scientific approach for determining how good/free a nation is.

We can play the “whose saying it game”, or look at the arguments. Democracy is rule by the lowest - and it’s easily manipulated by the popular. Buying votes, focus on the carnal, and immediate is a clear sign of democracy in decline.

[Andrex]

I was more wondering about these emperors, kings, barbarians, and those in their influence who were casting aspersions at Athens. Why are we giving these historically incorrect people the time of day?

[groundzeros2015]

Once again, looking at incentives can help you find hidden motivations. But at some point you have to look at the arguments at see if they make sense or not.

The US founders didn’t believe in democracy. More people do today, mostly out of a sense that it’s moral obligation. Very few actually will argue it leads to better government outcomes.

[refurb]

I wouldn’t assume some any index from a magazine is the end all authority on what a nation state is.

I mean I can start my own magazine and create my own index however I want. Doesn’t mean it’s right.

[hedayet]

I guess if your magazine's index reaches the height to have its wikipedia page, then, although it might not be right, but it will be pretty credible.

[refurb]

Anyone can have a Wikipedia page? There is no hurdle.

[austin-cheney]

The US and Israel are elected governments, but that should certainly not presuppose democratic. The Roman Republic was, for example, fully elected but simultaneously it was intentionally autocratic to the elite. That is why it fell to a dictatorship which then increased the liberty and standards of the people.

Democracy is the directness by which social participation equates to governance. The US is a federal republic with only two parties each bound by the same hostile funding system that benefits political contributions over the vote. That is far from democratic.

[scoofy]

Democracy and Republic both mean “normal people are in charge of government” and are in opposition to monarchy. The distinction you are referring to was a contrived interpretation in the federalist papers to make a point.

[austin-cheney]

No. Democracy and republic are fundamentally different. You want to equivocate them because there is a vote. They have always been different going back to the Ancient Greeks and Romans who each invented those terms.

[pedalpete]

For democratically elected governments, doesn't regime change occur when any sitting politician loses the next election to their oponent?

In my thinking regime change doesn't only refer to the complete collapse of the political system, just change in direction of the leaders.

[scoofy]

If the legislature changes party, that party —-“the regime” if we can use that term—- will be unseated from power.

[petre]

> Iran has an unelected supreme leader

Had. Israel probably has a list with the next 3 or 4 in line to replace Khamenei and is currently working towards eliminating them, like they did with the Hezbollah.

Regime change could also be triggered through impeachment or PM losing support and government coalition getting dissolved in the case of Israel.

[chinathrow]

You still believe the US regimes will allow elections as the they know it?

[kgwxd]

> if polling holds.

And The Constitution.

[throw0101c]

> It is difficult to instigate regime change for democratically elected governments.

Just ask the folks who tried on January 6.

> The US will have significant regime change in November if polling holds.

Assuming elections are held fairly. "Trump, seeking executive power over elections, is urged to declare emergency":

* https://archive.is/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2...

[diordiderot]

> Israel has a large portion of its population completely disenfranchised.

Does it?

[scoofy]

The Israeli government has de facto control of large sections of the Palestinian Territories. The people in those territories, however cannot participate in the elections of that government.

The distinction being de jure and de facto control is something worth debating, but it’s trivially true that Israel controls large swaths of territory where people are not eligible to participate in that government.

[bbshfishe]

Prior to October 7th this is simply not true.

[scoofy]

It is very obviously true. Literally movement in the West Bank is controlled.

[runako]

Consider the meanings of the following words:

- sovereignty

- border

- population

In that order, in the context of that region. Then consider their meanings in the context of (say) Canada. Consider how conventional applications of those terms are different for the two.