[dinobones]

> And given that in Austin they just reached parity with Waymo (i.e. completely unsupervised robotaxi service), they are not doing badly.

There is no unsupervised robotaxi service in Austin and there won't be, for years, if ever. Just like the way "FSD" is not fully self driving and likely never will be.

[llboston]

According to https://robotaxitracker.com/ there are 7 unsupervised robotaxi in Austin right now.

[DerekL]

Are these the cars where the safety driver is in a car tailing the robotaxi, or do they actually run without the need for a safety driver?

https://electrek.co/2026/01/22/tesla-didnt-remove-the-robota...

[WarmWash]

It seems they run without a safety driver or follow car (mostly?).

However the area it operates is extremely small, and they are still only allowing Tesla bros to try it.

[senordevnyc]

So in other words, like literally every other word out of Elon’s mouth for a decade now, it’s incredibly dishonest. He lies about everything, all the time, without any acknowledgment. Nothing is ever delivered on time, most of it isn’t delivered at all, and virtually every bit of promised capability is exaggerated.

Why does anyone want to do business with a person or company like that? I genuinely do not understand.

[small_model]

Nope is open to the public and covers bigger area then Waymo. EDS is limiting a lot of people here's ability to critically evaluate the current autonomous auto rollout.

[WarmWash]

The unsupervised area is a tiny subset of the supervised area.

[small_model]

Any evidence of this?, even it its true right now, and they are being ultra cautious, (they are hardly going to just dump 100k unsupervised teslas in one week), it won't stay that way for long. They will overtake Waymo in a few months, then kill them by the end of the year.

[senordevnyc]

This is totally false. If there are any truly autonomous robotaxis in Austin (a bit if, since Tesla has repeatedly lied and faked things like this in the past), it’s only a handful and they’re limited to a tiny area. The “robotaxis” with a safety driver are the ones that have the bigger area, probably because Tesla sucks at actual self-driving. Still. After a decade of broken promises and shitty engineering practices.

Elon has been blatantly lying about FSD for years, and yet the fans still take whatever he says as gospel. And yet the skeptics are the ones with EDS? lol, ok.

[testing22321]

> and there won't be, for years, if ever.

That is a lot of confidence. Do you work in the autonomous vehicle space?

What makes you so certain?

[UltraSane]

Because camera only simply won't be reliable enough with current technology.

[red75prime]

Try to find a single ablation study of a sensor suite. Waymo is in a good position to do such a study and the corporation would have benefited from showing that vision-only systems aren't viable (by demonstrating the corporation's good will to maintain public safety and by making it harder for vision-only competitors), but no such study from them.

I guess they understand that computer vision is a fast-moving target and their paper might become obsolete the next day.

[UltraSane]

FSD and Robotaxi are plenty of evidence vision only aren't viable.

[red75prime]

Read Electrek articles with a mouthful of salt. Fred Lambert’s “robotaxi is 10x worse than a human” estimate is based on his personal statistical reasoning, which somehow arrived at 200,000 miles per accident for humans. Minor accidents that Tesla reports for robotaxis (such as low-speed collisions with stationary objects) do not make it into publicly available statistics, so his estimate might be significantly off.

[UltraSane]

Not a single waymo requires a "safety driver" and the self driving never disengages the way it does on Teslas.

[testing22321]

Technology is moving fast.

When do you think it will be reliable enough?

[UltraSane]

Not for a very long time. Just think about how big of an advantage lidar and radar are at night or radar is in snow and rain?

If Tesla had been smart they would have used regular cameras and event based cameras where the pixels send a signal whenever their brightness changes enough. These can have microsecond latency. And multi spectral cameras. Combined this data would provide very rich data for neural networks.

[testing22321]

Sounds like you’re an expert. Do you work in the autonomous vehicle space? In what capacity?

[UltraSane]

I'm not an expert, just someone who understand how these technologies work. Sensor fusion is a fascinating thing.

[small_model]

lol its running now and growing every day, the thing about Tesla's solution is it works globally and the costs are much much less than Waymo will ever be able to achieve (Given there reliance on third parties for most of the hardware) Waymo and uber will be gone in a year.

[youarentrightjr]

> lol its running now and growing every day, the thing about Tesla's solution is it works globally and the costs are much much less than Waymo will ever be able to achieve (Given there reliance on third parties for most of the hardware) Waymo and uber will be gone in a year.

A year? They'll be gone in two weeks!

Seriously, what portion of your financial and emotional net worth is tied up in TSLA?

[small_model]

None, it's just obvious to anyone who has a high school level of business knowledge.

[youarentrightjr]

> None, it's just obvious to anyone who has a high school level of business knowledge.

That's a highly ironic statement given your position on "cost per mile".

With a small amount of business acumen, you'd know that betting on technology staying expensive is a bad idea. This is seen in all industries, but especially electronics, where there are many competitors continuously optimizing for cost. E.g., we're at the point now where an internet enabled phone is basically disposable, costing people ~ a few hours of wages.

History has shown that technology costs decrease over time, and rapidly if it's a critically important technology. If you don't agree, share a counter example.

[small_model]

Phones were about $400-500 years ago now they are over $1k which is not 'a few hours of wages' well not for most of us. I agree technology prices decreases over time but Waymo is starting at 5x the cost, by the time a Waymo costs even the same price as a Model Y, let alone a Cybercab it will be too late. That's my prediction, I could be wrong though, maybe Elon and Tesla are lying and so are all the users of least version of FSD.

[youarentrightjr]

> Phones were about $400-500 years ago now they are over $1k

https://www.walmart.com/ip/ST-MOTOROLA-XT2413V-CDMA-LTE-BLUE...

Try to avoid cherry picking if you want to have a discussion where you or the other person learns something. All the Elon stans on this site that I've encountered are highly disingenuous, starting to think that's not a coincidence.

[senordevnyc]

Been hearing this for years now. But sure, any day now…