[JCattheATM]

You can certainly prioritize evidence as you like, but I explained why when balancing all available evidence, it seems supporters are fine with what is happening. They say as much unambiguously in multiple places across multiple venues. I'll take that over a poll anyday.

[estearum]

Surely there are enough supporters to populate the message boards on which supporters congregate with messages of support. No doubt about that.

If you think that gives you a read on the overall attitude, then unfortunately there's nothing I can say to help you.

It is literally mathematically nonsensical to look at the numerator, put no effort into knowing the denominator, and then claim to have a sense for the ratio between them. It's shocking to see someone explicitly claim they can do this lmao.

[JCattheATM]

I don't need help from you, thanks for the offer though, however misguided.

Like I said, you're free to ignore all the datapoints that disagree with you and focus on the one that doesn't, if that makes you feel better.

I don't think there's much for us to discuss, and instead of going back and forth ad nauseum I'd just really appreciate it if you stopped replying to me altogether.

[bulbar]

So you have more data points? I am in fact interesting in them, I don't care too much who's in the right in this very discussion as this is all way too serious to be about who it being right.

But from what I have read with 'data' you mean your general impression from subreddits? Or do you have more robust data? I can imagine a few affects that lead to the subreddit(s) evolve independent of the average opinion of R voters. It happens all the time with subreddits.

But then again, maybe you got more information about it?

[JCattheATM]

I mean all data points taken as a whole bar the polls. I listed some of them earlier, ever talk show, opinion column, podcast, influencers (bar Joe Rogan), people calling in to radio shows. Anywhere you can find people giving an opinion, not just paid professionals but random people calling or writing in, it's in support. Literally 'the word on the street'. I don't think that's worth nothing, and I think that can be more representative than polls, as 2016 showed.

Furthermore, there's a lot of people who I think voted R who are now embarrassed and trying to defend the party and paint the people who support what is going on as a minority view, when it isn't.

[bulbar]

Thanks for elaborating. So you think Joe Rogan's critic on ICE was inflated by media? I heard he spoke some critic regarding the latest actions. But he is still a strong supporter of the current administration, I guess?

[JCattheATM]

Honestly I don't respect him so don't follow him too much, I just saw he disapproved of how ICE had been acting. Whether or not that tempered his support for the administration in general I cannot say.

[estearum]

I don't think their observations would even require such an evolution.

If public support among conservatives were at 15% or 85%, you'd see nearly identical output from the information sources they mention.

Jubilee videos would be full of the most goofball extremist people they could find, r/conservative would have enough people in the 15% to deter or actively suppress those who weren't (especially if the few moderators happened to be), the Fox News comment section would be packed to the gills with people in support, and Newsmax would be calling anyone not in the 15% a commie/RINO.

It's a totally absurd way to try to understand reality. The fact they suggest sampling from r/asktrumpsupporters (or r/peoplewhosupportClaimX) to understand how many conservatives support X is indicative of a fairly profound cognitive failure.

Note: This is not to suggest support among conservatives is actually in the 15% range. It's not. It's probably closer to 80% and with independents (and obviously Dems) overwhelmingly negative on the approach.

From before the Pretti murder, which flipped several conservatives I know personally, 23% of Republicans are saying ICE has gone too far:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/...