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by estearum 148 days ago
I don't think their observations would even require such an evolution.

If public support among conservatives were at 15% or 85%, you'd see nearly identical output from the information sources they mention.

Jubilee videos would be full of the most goofball extremist people they could find, r/conservative would have enough people in the 15% to deter or actively suppress those who weren't (especially if the few moderators happened to be), the Fox News comment section would be packed to the gills with people in support, and Newsmax would be calling anyone not in the 15% a commie/RINO.

It's a totally absurd way to try to understand reality. The fact they suggest sampling from r/asktrumpsupporters (or r/peoplewhosupportClaimX) to understand how many conservatives support X is indicative of a fairly profound cognitive failure.

Note: This is not to suggest support among conservatives is actually in the 15% range. It's not. It's probably closer to 80% and with independents (and obviously Dems) overwhelmingly negative on the approach.

From before the Pretti murder, which flipped several conservatives I know personally, 23% of Republicans are saying ICE has gone too far:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/...