[ben_w]

If that's the only risk, sure. But there's modelling and observation that suggest the required number of ASAT weapons to cause a Kessler cascade is currently zero, i.e. we're already in the early stages of one.

Because physics of orbital dynamics is less dramatic than shown in film, lowering orbits of satelites is an effective way to mitigate this.

[JumpCrisscross]

> there is a pretty good chance

Source?

[ben_w]

You're quoting something I didn't write; but to the point that we may already be in the early stages of a cascade, here's the modelling behind it:

https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/3...

[JumpCrisscross]

This paper is brought up elsewhere in this thread and responded to. TL; DR It raises interesting modelling strategies, and develops on cool numerical methods from Kessler (2001), but it's far off from "pretty good chance."