[ben_w]

You're quoting something I didn't write; but to the point that we may already be in the early stages of a cascade, here's the modelling behind it:

https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/3...

[JumpCrisscross]

This paper is brought up elsewhere in this thread and responded to. TL; DR It raises interesting modelling strategies, and develops on cool numerical methods from Kessler (2001), but it's far off from "pretty good chance."