[EA-3167]

There was a point after which the outcome of WWII was obvious and inevitable, but could you have timed the ending to within a week or two based on that knowledge? Should the inability to precisely time something imply that the arc of its future can’t be obvious?

Clearly not. Does the fact that few of us know the date of our death imply that we might live forever?

[danielmarkbruce]

You've misunderstood the point. It's not about being exactly right. It's about thinking clearly about the probabilities of different events. In your case, you explicitly call out that it's difficult to know the exact timing - so if someone had offered you even money for some particular week, you'd say no. If they offered you 100-1 for said week, it's a great bet, even if you lose.