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by danielmarkbruce
152 days ago
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You've misunderstood the point. It's not about being exactly right. It's about thinking clearly about the probabilities of different events. In your case, you explicitly call out that it's difficult to know the exact timing - so if someone had offered you even money for some particular week, you'd say no. If they offered you 100-1 for said week, it's a great bet, even if you lose. |
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