[andsoitis]

If it happened by force, then the US has attacked the EU.

I almost cannot conceive that it would happen.

However, if it does, the EU would have to force all US military personnel stationed on the bases across the EU to leave the region.

[Jtsummers]

EU and NATO, NATO is larger than the EU itself. It would be a political, economic, and military disaster (even if the US "wins" the conflict) for the US. Losing 31 ally nations (possibly more) overnight and all those facilities would be a long-term military disaster, and a longer-term political disaster. Who would ever ally with the US again for the next several decades knowing that the US will turn on allies?

[dadadanda]

There is no law of geopolitical physics that says regime change operations must be confined to developing countries. In the event of a serious deterioration in US-EU relations you shouldn't expect the US to sit idle. The European far right does not care about Greenland one bit.

We could very well end up in a situation where we have the US and Russia working together to destabilize the EU, perhaps European leaders fear this and will let Greenland go.

[0928374082]

https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2026/01/06/joint-st...

[Glawen]

The effects are probably more profound that just losing allies. It also could crash financial market, and tech wise would force EU to develop it's own industry, like baidu or yandex

[Jtsummers]

>> economic

I included the economic disaster in my list. I just felt that I needed to explain why I considered it a military disaster even though the US could likely "win" Greenland. It would lose Europe and the ability to project military power through Europe. This impacts the ability to project power in Africa and the Middle East. It'll lead to a cascading military failure which leads to lots of other problems including further economic problems.

[mindcrash]

> Losing 31 ally nations (possibly more) overnight and all those facilities would be a long-term military disaster, and a longer-term political disaster.

And they should also consider all equipment, munition and weapons stored at those facilities, including the B61 nukes, null and void. Because their former NATO allies will never ever allow the US to take equipment which could be used against them later on back home.

And if they come with the argument "But that is against international law", they should have thought about that before illegally abducting a foreign president from a country at peace according to those same international laws.

[gigatexal]

This. I would hope for this. Let them take Greenland to save lives. But while the win the battle they lose the war. No more NATO. No more allies in Europe. The next time something goes wrong America will be alone because Trump ruined anything decent with America.

[twixfel]

Trump already has ruined America. I'm not sure Americans understand how alienating this stuff is. As a formerly very Atlanticist Brit who used to genuinely look up to America and thought we had so much to learn from it, this shit is completely insane. The Americans have gone insane.

[gigatexal]

I’m an expat living in Berlin. Trust me. I can’t believe how bad it’s gotten. Maybe entropy and his bad diet will fix things … problem is JD Vance is even worse.

[JohnFen]

> I almost cannot conceive that it would happen.

I absolutely can. A decade ago, it would have been inconceivable, but we have gone seriously off the rails since then.

[yongjik]

Why let them walk away? I can't imagine it happening either, but if it happens, they are enemy combatants. EU should arrest them and treat them as prisoners of war.

[quantumcotton]

You must have forgotten the world has rules and weight classes. But reality hits hard and doesn't care. The USA with this administration is not to be tested. If there is anything you can say about trump. The world is actually terrified at what he will do because he will do anything he thinks is right. Not what is. But he's controlling the strongest most intelligent military on the planet. If you think war or capturing prisoners as another country is safe. You're dumber than the ring leader himself.

[0928374082]

Surely the most intelligent military on the planet would know every combatant has a duty to disobey a manifestly unlawful order?

[Beretta_Vexee]

They will play the same game as Russia. They will not annex the whole of Greenland and will try to keep the intensity below that which would justify a full-scale armed conflict.

They will claim to annex only the territory of the American bases, then it will be a 10-mile strip around the bases, access to the sea, airspace, the exclusive economic zone, etc.

They can play this game for months and years if we let them. Crimea came under Russian control because it was home to Russia's largest naval base, Simferopol.

[mrighele]

In case of attack by the US, their troops would be effectively stranded in enemy territory, in particular their nukes.

I doubt that the US would invade Greenland without first pulling out of Europe (unless they do an all-out attack with also the troops in continental Europe, but that is something i doubt even Trump would do)

[taylodl]

Almost. I’m admittedly being pedantic, but here’s the nuance:

Greenland is not part of the EU. Their citizens are Danish citizens, and as such, they are EU citizens. Confused yet? Greenland is a member of NATO - which is actually much more problematic. If Trump invades Greenland, he’s delivered NATO’s head on a silver platter to Vladimir Putin. I’d call that aiding and abetting an enemy - an act of treason - but I’m old school.

Since this is HN, what’s the tech angle?

The EU will restrict or outright ban U.S. Big Tech. Big Tech stocks will tank, and we can expect hundreds of thousands of layoffs as a result. More concerning, EU consumers will boycott as many American products as they can - just as Canadians have done. That means a wave of U.S. business failures and even more job losses. It’s also a big win for China, who will happily fill the gap.

Oh, and all U.S. military personnel and their families? Deported immediately. My crystal ball isn’t telling me what happens to the materiel.

So much winning!

[verzali]

TBH I've already cut the amount of American stuff I buy.