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by AllenDowney 4997 days ago
I am coming around to the conclusion that this example is more trouble than it's worth. I think it's kind of fun, but it does seem to annoy people.

This kind of feedback is exactly why I like to post drafts early. Expect this example to magically disappear very soon :)

3 comments

The problem with the Girl Named Florida is that the ambiguous wording is more confusing than the math.

Ambiguous: "In a family with two children, what are the chances, if one of the children is a girl named Florida, that both children are girls?"

More clear, and emphasizing the importance of precise wording when discussing probability: "Among families with two children, with at least one of the children being a girl named Florida, what portion have two girls? (Assume that all names are chosen randomly from the same distribution, independently of all other factors; and sex is determined as by a fair coin toss.)"

Wow, great to see a reply from you, and thanks for taking feedback :)
And... it's gone!

I re-read the chapter and decided that example was doing nothing except confusing half the audience and antagonizing the other half.

Underneath Figure 4.2:

I want to addresss on possible source

should be

I want to addresss one possible source

(on -> one)

Peace.

Fixed. Thanks!