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by mxschumacher 195 days ago
what are some historical examples of bubbles that didn't pop?
1 comments

Since this is HN, I'll go with the most obvious: Software development. Unsustainable, speculative growth through the COVID-19 period, but on the other side relatively slow decline.
This is the perfect example of people who constantly cried that it is a bubble but it wasn’t.
Nobody pays attention to things aligned to the fundamentals. When people are crying that there is a bubble, it is a bubble. Plain and simple.

We know for certain it was a bubble as non-bubbles have sustainable growth. As all the software developers now struggling to find work will be happy to tell you, the growth wasn't sustainable. The proof is in the pudding.

How do you prove that software development is a bubble?

Stock prices are at all time high and continuously growing.

> How do you prove that software development is a bubble?

By looking at the software development market. How else would you do it? Salaries rose sharply from 2020-2023, but then plateaued and are now starting to decline. Slowly, however. It did not crash. It ticks the boxes: Rapid price appreciation, speculation, a disconnect from fundamentals, widespread media attention, and an eventual correction.

> Stock prices are at all time high and continuously growing.

If we're sharing random facts: Global average temperature is also at an all time high and continuously increasing.

1. the labour market has not much to do with whether it is a bubble or not

2. definition of bubble is that the market cap must precipitously reduce, which it hasn't.