Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by 9rx 195 days ago
Nobody pays attention to things aligned to the fundamentals. When people are crying that there is a bubble, it is a bubble. Plain and simple.

We know for certain it was a bubble as non-bubbles have sustainable growth. As all the software developers now struggling to find work will be happy to tell you, the growth wasn't sustainable. The proof is in the pudding.
1 comments
simianwords 195 days ago
How do you prove that software development is a bubble?

Stock prices are at all time high and continuously growing.

link
9rx 195 days ago
> How do you prove that software development is a bubble?

By looking at the software development market. How else would you do it? Salaries rose sharply from 2020-2023, but then plateaued and are now starting to decline. Slowly, however. It did not crash. It ticks the boxes: Rapid price appreciation, speculation, a disconnect from fundamentals, widespread media attention, and an eventual correction.

> Stock prices are at all time high and continuously growing.

If we're sharing random facts: Global average temperature is also at an all time high and continuously increasing.

link
simianwords 195 days ago
1. the labour market has not much to do with whether it is a bubble or not

2. definition of bubble is that the market cap must precipitously reduce, which it hasn't.

link
9rx 194 days ago
> the labour market has not much to do with whether it is a bubble or not

How can the very market we're talking about not indicate whether there is a bubble in that market or not? Do you think we should be looking at the price of soybeans instead?

> definition of bubble is that the market cap must precipitously reduce, which it hasn't.

Incorrect. It has, just not by very much. Which isn't surprising as we already established that there wasn't a crash.

link
simianwords 194 days ago
What is your definition of bubble then? If not by market cap?
link
9rx 194 days ago
Why read comments in isolation? We already went over this:

- Rapid price appreciation

- Speculation

- A disconnect from fundamentals

- Widespread media attention

- An eventual correction

If market cap, how do you explain housing bubbles? Market cap is not applicable to housing.

link