[TulliusCicero]

100% agreed with this article. The whole idea of Ireland's supposed neutrality is a farce. Does anyone really think that if a country like Russia decided to full-on invade Ireland, other European nations would just shrug it off? Of course not, and the Irish are well aware of that and rely on it (already they explicitly rely on the UK to help defend their country as a matter of policy).

So really it's a simple hypocrisy, a one-way street. You help us, but we don't help you. We're too principled to help others, you see.

[tonymet]

Nearly Everything consequential in history was unexpected, and for the most part we have a record of someone important saying "that will never happen"

[throw310822]

There's also a long history of tragic events happening precisely because everyone was preparing for them (see: WWI) and of course, of horribly wrong choices getting prepared for things that never happened.

[tonymet]

WW1 wasn’t “started by preparation”. In fact it was the continuation of about 100 years of war, and the war continued for nearly 100 years afterward. Europe had been at war nearly continuously from Napoleon to 2000 .

[prmph]

Interesting! What are some battles of this war between 1946 to 2000, and what happened in 2000 to stop it?

[tonymet]

Soviet Occupation of Europe, "Cold War", which was very hot with arms race, intel, nuclear deployments, naval skirmishes, proxy wars, Yugoslavia War.

It didn't end in 2000, really it expanded.

[throw310822]

The partition of Europe between the two victors of WW2 (USA and USSR) was part of the peace, not a state of war. The cold war wasn't a war inside Europe but between two rival superpowers; the Yugoslavia war wasn't one between EU countries but a civil war result of a change in external conditions.

[tonymet]

you're kidding right.

[spwa4]

... and an equally long history of people "avoiding war", while refusing to be reasonable, right up to the point that a gigantic war becomes unavoidable. People will choose to go to war over a prolonged economic crisis. Such a crisis can easily be avoided by countries working together rather than push costs onto each other, but in any actual crisis they never do cooperate.

And of course, WWII would be an example of that. It was also far worse than WWI, including for Ireland. So there's even a very strong case that this is a self-destructive attitude for Ireland.

But if history teaches us anything, whether the example of the Weimar republic or anything else, it's that you can tell people this all you want. You can show how bad things are and how the situation cannot continue, people will NEVER accept what needs to be done, if it has to be done by them.

For example, right now it's pretty damn obvious European shared military presence in the East Sea and in Eastern European countries is a very desirable thing indeed. Every other EU country, and several others like Switzerland, have committed to put forward about 5% of GDP towards this (>10% of their total government budget) ... so it would seem only fair Ireland joins them, after all, without that presence Ireland's economy cannot keep working, because it cannot export or import freely. Ireland is letting other people pay for its safety, giving nothing in return, but Ireland is competing with them for the rewards of that safety. And your very comment shows that you're arguing to not do it, illustrating the problem. Of course, profiting economically of other countries while abandoning them militarily is exactly why Russia (and even China) think they can just conquer them. If that happens, it would be a total disaster for Ireland. But nobody cares.

And of course, Ireland is not currently in an economic crisis, quite the opposite, and could easily cooperate ... but doesn't. We can only imagine what will happen when inevitably, a crisis does come.

In fact Ireland currently has tax laws that let it essentially tax all of Europe (letting the FANG companies take profits out of Europe tax-free in return for jobs in Ireland, that are then heavily taxed by the Irish government. The employees of those companies are heavily taxed, btw, NOT the companies themselves). That's what the current Irish government actually prides itself on. Stealing tax revenue from it's main allies. Seriously.

So just so we're clear: Ireland is destroying corporate tax income in 30 EU countries, in trade for jobs, not filled by Irish people, in Dublin, so those can be taxed at >50%. This is, by the way, what the Irish government prides itself on, and it is why living in Dublin has basically become impossibly expensive.

It is also forcing the EU tax system to become 10x more complicated than it already is (the EU is working to have multinationals pay taxes in the countries where they make money, so any advantage of having a tax domicile in a specific country disappears. But of course, this will be complicated, to put it mildly)

[beezlewax]

Except the Irish army has conducted large numbers of peacekeeping missions as part of the United Nations. Irish soldiers have died in said operations. The Siege at Jadotville is one example - there is a pretty great film about this.

[TulliusCicero]

That's laudable, but it doesn't change the fact that they rely on their European neighbors to defend them while feigning "neutrality" and wouldn't return the favor if another, say, EU country were seriously attacked.

[spwa4]

Like preventing the Hezbollah attack on Israel for example. And yes, an Irish soldier died. Pte Rooney.

I hope the other missions went better ...

Btw: Lebanon convicted someone to a death sentence over this killing. He wasn't in court however and the conviction remains without any actual consequence for the killer, he hasn't ever been arrested. The Irish government had no reaction, other than hiding that this happened, and that nobody was actually punished is not well known in Ireland.

[nradov]

The Irish were idiots for sending peacekeepers there without adequate air, armor, and artillery support.

[throw310822]

If Russia decided to full-on invade Ireland, a country of 4.5 million (as completely absurd as this idea is, being Ireland where it is) having its own military would not help Ireland- it should better capitulate quickly to limit damage.

[TulliusCicero]

There's a similar population ratio between the PRC and Taiwan I believe, so I guess Taiwan should just give up on having a military entirely then?

Not possible for them to stop China, so why bother? Just lie back and think of Ireland.

[Avicebron]

Russia invading Ireland would be like China invading Cuba.. there's a geo in geopolitics for a reason..

[Lio]

Would it not be more like Russia invading Königsberg?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad

[Ekaros]

Well if they had reached Atlantic before that...

[throw310822]

If Taiwan weren't defended by the US (for purely strategic interests, certainly not because of idealism or democracy) then yes, sure. Better than a destructive war with the same identical outcome.

Btw, do you also happen to think that Ireland should arm itself against a possible invasion from the US?

[tim333]

Ireland mostly managed to kick out the British.

[dralley]

What? The very distance involved and difficulty of such an invasion is precisely why resistance is extremely plausible and not being able to do so is indefensible. Even a "token" amount of resistance makes it exponentially more difficult.

You would certainly have been the type of person whining about how Ukraine was doomed to fall in a matter of hours under the incredible size and capability of the Russian military. Like, these guys are just not that competent. You can make the job nearly impossible for them by just giving a single solitary fuck.

To say nothing of the fact that "full invasion" isn't even really the target. They just need to be able to defend their own airspace and sea lanes against errant Russian planes and ships.

[throw310822]

> The very distance involved and difficulty of such an invasion is precisely why resistance is extremely plausible

Not to mention the possibility of an invasion from Australia. They should prepare against that, too! See, the whole premise of this discussion is completely absurd: there is no threat whatsoever by Russia to Ireland. There's a narrative that gets pushed more every day that Europe is under threat from Russia and should gear up for a war, and even (say some) attack first. Notice that all the drones spotted above airports and military installations are only alleged to belong to Russia, but not a single one has been reasonably attributed to them. And the party that has most to gain from an increase in the tension between Europe and Russia is Ukraine, not Russia.

> You would certainly have been the type of person whining about how Ukraine was doomed to fall

And I was right, as it seems, hundreds of thousands of deaths later, cities razed to the ground, a country in ruins. Those who didn't want peace talks share in part the responsibility of those deaths, do you ever think about it?

[Lio]

Perhaps you missed the confirmed Russian spy boat surveying cables going into Dublin?

They’re not doing that because they want to give out free hugs.

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2024/1115/1481145-russian-...

[throw310822]

A closely surveilled Russian vessel that was briefly seen several kms away from undersea cables. Meanwhile, the only confirmed hostile act against European infrastructure was the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, and the perpetrators were our "allies", Ukraine and the US.

[Lio]

We don't know who the perpetrators were. There's speculation that it was carried out by Russia itself.

Your blaming it on Ukraine and US without proof, much like your suggestions that Ukraine should surrender to stop the war, is suspcious.

Face facts, Russia could stop the war anytime they like because they started it. Where as for Ukraine surrending doesn't stop the mass killings or the kidnapping of their children.

We know that because in areas that have been conquered by Russia these things have continued.

[thfuran]

No, they need to be able to defend their elections and social media from Russian interference.

[throw310822]

It would be time that people take responsibility again for their own (and their countries') choices instead of blaming everything wrong on the mythical bogeyman Russia.