[rahulvohra]

I plan to build up to a relatively complex model that hopefully you'll find useful or interesting.

Here's my intended sequence: for the next post, I'll model retention as a simple loss rate. After that I'll model retention with a curve over time. And after that I'll model the viral factor itself as a curve over time.

Is there something in particular you think it'd be interesting to cover?

[far33d]

As someone with a lot of experience modeling growth, I think this teaching approach is a good one.

I find that most teams start exactly where this article starts - modeling total installs over time using constant virality. They then realize they care more about active users, and do the same for retention, then realize that retention and virality change over time, and do a cohort model.

Jumping to the end is likely to confuse people who haven't already organically gone through this process. I was also a little underwhelmed at first read, so some mention of the plan in future posts would help us know where you are going.

[StuieK]

It would be great if you could consider the cycle time.

[001sky]

"As simple as possible, but no more"

--Some famous guy. =]