[Yokolos]

If we see a war between Russia and the EU, we're going to have to deal with them learning from Israel and using the same idea of decentralised drone hubs attacking military and civilian targets across the entire continent. We're woefully underprepared to deal with something like this. Western Europe still thinks that if a war breaks out, it'll be tanks and soldiers going into the Baltic states, and we'll crush them with our advanced arsenal. It'll be more like when Russia took eastern Ukraine. A hard push, then months of digging in as they proceed to genocide the Baltics, gaslight the West into thinking it'd be easier and safer to just hand over the Baltics without a big fight and wage asymmetric warfare across Europe and severely hamper any military response by hitting the logistic chains at every point.

[bluGill]

The EU military leaders are watching Ukraine closely (as is any other competent military leader anywhere in the world) and trying to figure out how they will handle this problems. The EU is also talking to Ukraine military leaders and brainstorming solutions that Ukraine is trying in real time (not all military leaders are, but a lot of countries outside of the EU are). The EU is also designing new weapons/systems with the current situation in mind, it is likely that these (whatever they are - this is classified but I can say it with confidence anyway because it is so obvious there is no way they are not doing something) will be ready before Russia attacks.

[slightwinder]

> Western Europe still thinks that if a war breaks out, it'll be tanks and soldiers going into the Baltic states, and we'll crush them with our advanced arsenal.

Drones are not for conquering, but destruction. We see this in Ukraine now, where Drones are not making the whole war, but are just one gear of the machinery. And Western leaders know this, they are preparing Drones, but refitting the western machinery takes time. Probably one reason why they seem busy to bind Russia in Ukraine.

[Yokolos]

> Drones are not for conquering, but destruction.

Yes, and we have plenty of infrastructure to destroy. It's a target rich environment.

> And Western leaders know this, they are preparing Drones

I've seen zero indication that this is true. Do you have sources that we're in any way preparing for a large-scale drone war?

[slightwinder]

> Yes, and we have plenty of infrastructure to destroy. It's a target rich environment.

Yes, but how is that relevant? Everything is always open for terror. Russia itself is not safe either. Or are you assuming Russia is out for pure blind destruction? Degrading themselves to become lousy terrorists? Just spreading destruction for no reason?

I would assume they at least will have some aim and reasoning behind their targets, which would mean they will come with soldiers and tanks, and conquer land, or destroy the highest profile-targets. In the first case, they will have very limited resources to spare for attacks on middle European targets. For the second case, you only need to focus your defence on those targets.

> I've seen zero indication that this is true.

May you are following the wrong sources? Building up drones-defence is in progress for a while now. Whether it's going well is a different story, but I would assume that they will not talk very openly about those things for obvious reasons.

[red-iron-pine]

there was literally an article just the other day about the US buying a million drones and building the capacity to continue that level of To&E

[billy99k]

Do you really think after years of crushing defeats in battle and sanctions, that they have the money or soldiers to fight the EU? If they did, they would have taken over Ukraine by now.

Now if China gets involved? It's a different story.

[DocTomoe]

It's Schroedinger's Red Army: Too incompetent and weak to conquer a third-rate power, but prepared and willing o attack NATO-coordinated Western Europe any day now.

Such is propaganda: You need to keep the population in fear so they will follow your policies.

[Cthulhu_]

If China gets involved directly (e.g. not through supplies) then the conflict will escalate; no party wants to escalate this, and for years now this has been a tight-rope proxy war of sorts, where Europe and the US try to support Ukraine as much as possible without being directly involved. Likewise, Russia has been getting supplies and people from their allies.

[red-iron-pine]

the key difference is that China and Russia have direct borders and land beefs; they may well be rivals, but it's easy for China to feed them tech and learn from their mistakes while getting a serious cut (25% or more) on oil.

discount at the gas station while a potential rival hollows itself out and turns into the Canada of China -- a mostly empty resource hub that follows your lead

[immibis]

They don't need money or soldiers, but drones.

[victorbjorklund]

How would they get drones without money or soldiers?

[aduwah]

Oil still flowing

[Y-bar]

Yup.

China, Turkey, and India are main buyers of Russian oil at the moment: https://energyandcleanair.org/october-2025-monthly-analysis-...

[victorbjorklund]

So money? And oil is down a lot. They even have fuel shortages in Russia. They have to import fuel.

[kakacik]

Don't underestimate lack if willingness of EU folks to see their dead, or have hospitals or kindergardens bombed by russians on purpose, just like they routinely do in Ukraine. Maybe it can bring on more resistance but I wouldn't hold my breath, european population right now is weak.

Also russia has firm footing in EU politics already - for example every single far right group is parroting russian propaganda even when directly aimed against given country. It took decades to build to sow division in whole EU and they are using it now to their fullest.

[EDIT] Gotta love the downvotes, I am just describing what I see across whole EU including my own country. Would love some constructive feedback but this is clearly a touchy topic for many folks

[gambiting]

If you read what top generals in various countries in the EU are saying(especially on the East side), their main concern is that Russia is making thousands of brand new tanks, cannons, support vehicles......and they are all going into storage. Very few are actually getting sent to Ukraine. If these guys are saying that large scale conflict with Russia seems almost inevitable within few years.....what qualifications do I have to disagree with them? Obviously I don't want this to be true - far from it.

[pdabbadabba]

I’ve never heard anyone say this. Source?

[Cthulhu_]

I'm also curious, why would Russia continue to send thousands to their deaths while holding back supplies and stuff? Unless it's intentional to appear weaker than they are.

But I don't see how that would work, unless the US is intentionally witholding intel from their allies - the US, since the invention of spaceflight, has had spy sattelites trained at Russia and they would see large accumulations and transports of tanks and tank parts.

[gambiting]

Ok I spent the last hour looking for this interview and I honestly can't find it - the closest I can get to the source is this article saying that Russia is building a strategic reserve of tanks:

https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7%2C114881%2C3206584...

But it's not the one I read which was literally a general saying "they are building tanks and not sending them to the front - why if not to fight with NATO eventually".

[pdabbadabba]

Thanks. This is useful (in English translation):

> Russian factories are working at full speed, producing new tanks and repairing those that have been dusty for years," writes "Le Figaro". The French daily refers to its sources and data from independent study groups. On the other hand, experts also point to the fact that this year the losses of the Russians have decreased - this year it was only 200 tanks. According to the newspaper, this may be due to the fact that the participation of these vehicles in the fighting at the front has been reduced. This, in turn, is the result of greater use of drones.

This actually strikes me as fairly plausible: it suggests that Russia has decided that tanks are not ideally suited for the current drone war in Ukraine. So they're continuing to ramp up production, but aren't (at this point) sending them to the front.

This doesn't necessarily mean that they have a long-term plan to invade NATO, however. I can think of many other scenarios where it would be in Russia's strategic interest to have a large modernized tank force in reserve.

[littlestymaar]

I'm not convinced by your conclusion.

I mean of course drones would be a massive problem for western forces as they have never faced that kind of threat at scale.

But at the same time the Russian army has suffered dramatic attrition in Ukraine, especially in anti-air capabilities which used to be USSR's specialty and which western analyst feared it would allow the Russians to perform wide anti access on the Baltic's while they would quickly take over the Suvalki corridor and the whole Baltic states soon after.

With limited maneuvering capability left to quickly overwhelm local land armies and a significantly diminished air defense asset, I think the Russians would just lose the sky very quickly and then be unable to supply their ground forces.

And I really don't think Putin wants to lose a quick conventional war and end up with just the nuclear deterrence as his only card so I'm not too worried about him attacking EU directly. (But then again it made little sense to attack Ukraine in the first place yet he did it no matter what, so who knows…)

(Had the Ukrainian army collapsed and the 2022 campaign gone as planned by the Russian command, then the prospects would have been extremely grim for the Baltic states and the European Union as a whole. We Europeans collectively owe a lot to the Ukrainians).

[sigwinch]

On the topic of what Putin wants, I’m increasingly swayed that domestic politics limit the choices he’s given. I wonder how the same siloviki but a different leader would perform.

On the topic of a wide drone attack coinciding with land invasion, I think (rightly or wrongly) the drone attack will be attributed to Russia early. Even though the life of a Russian soldier is approximately the same as a drone, it’d be very helpful for Russia to manifest the drones in support of some other origin of the troops.

[AnimalMuppet]

Could you expand a bit on what you mean by your first paragraph?

[red-iron-pine]

not that guy, but to quote someone else from HN

something to the effect of: "Russia has a way out of this war. They can release some or all of Ukrainian territory, take their ball and go home.

Putin however has no way out of this war, as dictators cannot look weak and there was already the revolt from Prigozhn.

There is no reality where he can just walk away without facing repercussions.

He could try to repress his way to security but the Tsars tried that too..."

[sigwinch]

History shows periods of opaque infighting within a closed circle of security barons. The west did not know Khrushchev was positioned for power until that ring met with Eisenhower for arms talks, and Khrushchev was the one standing next to Eisenhower at the buffet.

I think the West now expects a complex and probably mortal fight for succession, with the Patruchevs being favored right now.

I’ve heard people talking about factions: one ensuring Putin’s physical security; another ensuring a continuity of their power so that oligarchs and siloviki are indivisibly secure.