[sigwinch]

On the topic of what Putin wants, I’m increasingly swayed that domestic politics limit the choices he’s given. I wonder how the same siloviki but a different leader would perform.

On the topic of a wide drone attack coinciding with land invasion, I think (rightly or wrongly) the drone attack will be attributed to Russia early. Even though the life of a Russian soldier is approximately the same as a drone, it’d be very helpful for Russia to manifest the drones in support of some other origin of the troops.

[AnimalMuppet]

Could you expand a bit on what you mean by your first paragraph?

[red-iron-pine]

not that guy, but to quote someone else from HN

something to the effect of: "Russia has a way out of this war. They can release some or all of Ukrainian territory, take their ball and go home.

Putin however has no way out of this war, as dictators cannot look weak and there was already the revolt from Prigozhn.

There is no reality where he can just walk away without facing repercussions.

He could try to repress his way to security but the Tsars tried that too..."

[sigwinch]

History shows periods of opaque infighting within a closed circle of security barons. The west did not know Khrushchev was positioned for power until that ring met with Eisenhower for arms talks, and Khrushchev was the one standing next to Eisenhower at the buffet.

I think the West now expects a complex and probably mortal fight for succession, with the Patruchevs being favored right now.

I’ve heard people talking about factions: one ensuring Putin’s physical security; another ensuring a continuity of their power so that oligarchs and siloviki are indivisibly secure.